Unemployment numbers

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Berns, Jul 3, 2008.

  1. Berns


    So I'm trying to understand the relationships and differences between 1. the unemployment rate 2. the employment situation and 3. jobless claims

    Now from my understanding basically more jobs means fewer people looking for work means its harder to find people to fill those jobs means you have to raise wages means inflation goes up means interest rates go up means stocks go down and bonds go up. Correct me if I'm wrong in any of this.

    Now I need help filling in the blanks using the three variables I stated at the beggining. Anyone?

    *unemployment rates came out Tuesday:
    unemployment rate - Total hit 7.8% - before this it was 7.9%
    unemployment rate hit 7.2% - before this it was 7.2%
    *employment situation numbers came out today and hit -62K -before this it was 49K
    *jobless claims came out today and hit 404K - before this it was 384K
  2. Keneysian economics is a bunch of BS made to cover up the true cause & definition of inflation. Demand for labor DOES NOT cause inflation.

    The unemployment rate is a very misleading statistic since it excludes anyone who has been out of work for 6 months or more. They are labeled as "discouraged workers" and are not part of the labor pool. There is little correlation between the unemployment rate and the real jobs situation.

    Jobless claims just help determine an increasing or decreasing trend. It's a minor statistic.

    If you are trying to find some correlation between how rates are set & the employment numbers, in reality, there is none.