Unemployment Numbers in Line

Discussion in 'Economics' started by EMRGLOBAL, Jan 9, 2009.

  1. Will be interesting to see what Oil And markets end up today at close.

    Unemployed in 1945 2.7 million Unemployed in 2008 2.6 million.
     
  2. yeah but population was much lower in 1945 than now, can't compare to much with the UE rate since its tampered with so much
     
  3. Revisions devastating.

    Average hours worked pointing to much worse to come...

    Get the Hell Out.
     
  4. Shagi

    Shagi

    The US economy lost 524,000 jobs in December, a bit less than the 550,000
    economists expected, although the unemployment rate jumped to a higher-than-
    expected 7.2%.
    The higher unemployment rate reflects huge revisions to October and November
    payrolls. Labor revised November payrolls down to a loss of 584,000 jobs (was -
    533K), and revised October payrolls down to a 423,000 loss (was -320K). The
    154,000 new lost jobs in these months means a net total of just more than 1 mln
    jobs lost in October and November alone.
    November's job losses were the highest in any month since December 1974.
    The economy has now lost 2.589 mln jobs since January, the largest number of
    job losses in a calendar year since 1945. Of course, there are more workers
    today than there were in 1945.
     
  5. The market is so arrogant.. so cocky... "the bad news is all priced in.. the bottom is in".

    We've had nothing but bad news since November 20... virtually EVERY piece has been bad and even "very bad"... .yet the market goes bopping smugly along.

    Personally, I think it's Wave4 action.... and it's doing exactly what it supposed to... that is, sucking-in everybody before the next plunge-ola.
     
  6. Shagi

    Shagi

    Then you see strange things like - dollar rally, bonds down, gold down, Stocks rally -
     
  7. Considering the Market action prior to the bad news period you describe was one of the absolute worst on record, and if you subscribe to the theory that the market prices forward expectations, then wouldn't that behavior make sense?

    We now have a ~50% draw-down (95%/2sigma for de-trended S&P500) and a massively steep positive yield curve. As bad as every thing looks, maybe the market is pricing in something different than doom and gloom looking forward?
     
  8. Yeah, sure. That's what the bulls are thinking.

    And if this were they typical "Fed induced recession", they'd probably be right.

    I think we need to be allowing for the possibility of "it's different this time".
     
  9. Otc, Shagi, good points.

    I have to agree. Also, the population that is being laid off, sectors hit hardest, I believe grew the most. Not sure on the exact % of growth between 01 and 08.

    A lot of Unskilled labor being laid off as well.
     
  10. gnome,

    It will be interesting to see if we are in a "Bottom" process or setting up for a 2000 point loss on the INDU over the next two quarters.

    I believe we are in a bottoming process with Oil and Naty Gas.
     
    #10     Jan 9, 2009