So.. the guy has fond memories of being a douchebag in 1974. Checkout 1974 for the Snp500. It was a terrible year lol
Take the current rate of unemployment, and mulitply it by the current size of the labor force. Do the same for past unemployment rates that were high, multiplying those numbers by the actual size of the labor force. You might sing a bit of a different tune. Size of the labor force has grown much larger, so put the percentages aside for a moment to look at raw numbers. Once you have a raw number representing the number of unemployed in the US, multiply that by the dollar amount of the average cost of unemployment benefits and then multiply that figure by the average length of time spent frictionally unemployed. Once you have this grand figure, back it out of the stimulus bill, and see what type of stimulus we have left to jumpstart this stricken economy.
There are two ways to calculate GDP. Gross domestic product. Or gross domestic INCOME (that stems from employment). Granted, while people can still go on the dole, much of this consumption-based economy depends on gainfully employed people spending money. Take gainfully employed outta the picture and you've got GDP contraction, no matter which way you slice it.
Did you read to the end? "To be clear, I donât wish to be some kind of contrarian Pollyanna who sees bright silver in every single cloud, or an automatic buying opportunity in every downturn. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar, as Freud was wont to say. Iâm just saying that we donât know yet how this will break. For now, I remain primarily bearish because the trend in play right now is bearish. Thatâs just simple practicality