Not surprising. I do see a jobless recovery in the US. With the cheap labor in india for white collar jobs, Cheap labor in China/Mexico for blue collar jobs. The unemployment should peak at 12% and hover around 9-10% during this jobless recovery.
Don't know if anyone watched CNBC after the report, but the level of bullishness regarding the economy (they had economists on, not stock guys) was unbelievable, given the fact that we're still on pace to lose 5 million jobs this year. I'm talking late 90's Larry Kudlow type bullishness. You have to say that the economic rebound is pretty closed to being priced in.
They will call it not V-Shaped, but the I-Shaped rebound. Overnight straight back up to 2007 employment & GDP growth.
Forget about a "V" shaped recovery, the only reason for a "V" shaped recovery by many economist is because of the stimulus plan and programs put forth into the economy, will these work, who knows, Im looking for a "L" shaped recovery, where the economy trades around -2%-0% GDP for at least a 5-10 years period. There is just too much optimism out there, there is also to much government intervention which is creating this upbeat attitude of a quick turnaround in our economy. The last few bull markets and last 2 decades were created with excess leverage, how can this economy possibly experience GDP growth above 3% without excess leverage is beyond me. Unemployment will continue to move higher leading to more pressure on the commercial and residential real estate market. Relying on trillions of printed dollars to bailout the economy is going to take many by surprise when we have high inflation and a collapsing dollar. We are far from ending this crisis.
it takes many people to build a decent car, but only one person to f*ck it up an increase in unemployment say by 1% is an increase in crisis by several percentage points we already know unemployment will reach 10% within a few months, this summer will be one of the shittiest ever for this country see, first crisis hits, then a period comes where people have some hope, they think let's wait, time might fix this, as times passes by, they lose their patience, all that hope obama pumped up their a** fades away, then the real sh*t hits the economy