a few thoughts - - labor participation rate https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-participation-rate check the 10 year chart, the Obama disaster.. Trump stablized it and now is showing slight up tick. - the AI revolution is coming, people who think that AI will 'create more jobs' simply don't understand what AI is... this time it IS different from all previous productivity revolutions... so how do we cope. -- the next few years is critical in setting up you financial future... the FAAMG phenomena showing us that big size big data will dominate everything... you need to join them, by owning as many shares as possible... the next 6 years of Trump will see at least a double in QQQ and SPY... get your earnings up and accumulate like mad! -- the kids out there, gotta pick your field carefully, a vast labor force displacement is coming.
Trump didn't really stabilize it, it was well under stabilization beforehand: I don't know if I trust in the AI revolution that much. The way I see it, as a technologist, is that it is another tool in the belt similar to cloud computing in terms of boost to productivity. So while it is a huge paradigm shift, the shift is similar to having the opportunity to create a few more Googles and Amazons as opposed to mechanics and truck drivers becoming unemployed. So IMO it isn't the AI revolution that will cause unemployment, it will be the Pareto power law: big companies suck up all the sales and profits leaving crumbs for the rest of us. They have been doing that without AI, AI will just help them do it better. But, I agree with your FAAMG QQQ SPY investment thesis. The money will collect there.
ok couple things: - combined with the unemployment rate this will make some sense.. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000 so let's see what happens. - 'this time it is different'.... the difference is that AI has hit 'critical mass' in data storage and computing speed and now 'thinking like a human' is possible.
Oh I won't predict the future, but thinking like a human is very far off. AI boils down to basically repeatedly executing Ax=b and adjusting A in a systematic manner when b_predicted is too far off from b_actual (not exactly, obviously, but close enough.) Is it possible that this simple formula can eventually encapsulate the entirety of what it means to make a human decision? Possibly. But you would need 10s of thousands of GPUs (millions?) to simulate a human brain. Maybe a merged FAAMG can afford do this without dying under the load. And then basically we have something as stupid as us anyway. What can be done with AI? Tasks that are repetitive. Looking at tweets and deciding whether the sentiment around $FB is bullish or bearish. Is this a cat or a dog? Where in the data have we seen this pattern before? AI (for me anyway, as a technologist) is a tool to do many things which used to be difficult to code with complex rules. In my opinion, it says a lot that the top Kaggle winners for anything other than image/audio recognition still use random forests with gradient boosting as opposed to deep learning.
ok - the 'encapsulation' is already under way! you can check what the deepmind.com guys are doing... still in the early stages of course, but the load shouldn't be a problem as it advances... the human brain has a very low power draw, the machine will get there.... the 'Lee Sedol' version of AlphaGo required multiple servers... today a PC version is already stronger... this took place in only couple of years... and of course the computing speed doubles every 18 months or so? once we get to quantum computing they we are no longer limited to 1's and 0's... and by the way this is what I was talking about how the Dems can run on a new platform, out-technology the GOP!.... not just the Yang idea of UBI... giving out money is the easy part.. but adding a VAT is still the old idea..... right now the Dems have been hijacked by its own extreme left... same old tired ideas, tax the rich, equality, co2 scam... blah..
AlphaGo was definitely a HUGE conceptual leap over Deep Blue. Google is the new IBM. I'm not disagreeing with you in the pace of development, but I don't see AI being anything different from horse buggy to fuel burning car transition.
lol perfect analogy you just gave.... so we no longer use horses to move people and goods right? except this time WE are the horses.