@HobbyTrading, thx, I think I've got an idea for calculating this exactly: via the probability space 1 - p Will try to find a formula.
After thinking a while on this problem I came to the conclusion that one can create a generic solution for all position types only by creating a PnL diagram by simulating it, much like the Put Spread case I posted here. A position can also be losing at both sides from the current spot, like in this example: https://optioncreator.com/short-straddle This PnL diagram is of course much different than from the PnL diagram of a LongStock, therefore a general formula for all cannot exist, IMO. For single stocks a simple solution via a simple formula might exist, but it's obviously not a general solution for all possible position types. For a portfolio often a VaR (Value at Risk) calc is used, but IMO it's not the correct method. Instead it must be done like I wrote above: one has to create a PnL diagram for the whole portfolio by simulating it, and then determine the MinPnL% (within say 3SD). If that's a negative value than it's the max loss at risk. Should be done for each position individually, then the MinPnL's summed together and from that the MinPnL% calcd, as this way it's much easier to perform.
%% WELL adding a diversified very liquid ETF like EWZ[Brazil], sure did work well this year, not with a 2% ''noise'' stop loss\LOL. But while EWZ worked out fine in 2022+sure has had some very good trends in the past..... EWZ,10 years=0.34% LOL+ 5 years= [-1.35%],terrible]+ terrible % compared to SPY benchmark. EWZ maybe an underperformer risk, except for 2022. Good points =on not likely @ all to lose 100% n any of these