In review -- think I had a good read at the time just a little unlucky on the timing both ways -- i've found that once you're out of tune it's really hard to get back so have to find a way to reset and wait for the next wave. This morning the charts look a little bit off -- the ES is up in almost a straight 45 degree line up where the Euro looks more like a cardiogram. In general my view of the world in equities is very bullish now that the Fed has signaled they will step in with more liquidity as needed, however, the event risk of a bankruptcy in Europe would be catastrophic.. feels like this is the perfect market for options as opposed to spot.. something like selling 5% out of the money puts but then buying twice the amount of 10% out of the money puts coupled with buying calls spreads.. back to the EUR, the range so far has been about 50 pips, which is way below average but probably not too far off from average for last week in August... if there was a range expansion we might get a range of 70 pips only questions is which way.. The more logical answer is that EUR/ES correlation would continue and the EUR would break to the upside, coupled with the fact that most everybody is short the EUR..
very interesting EUR/ES divergence.. not sure what to make of it.. Will buy EUR if it it hits 1.4390 - will sell if it hits 1.4430