Unbelievable but true: CFTC declares Technical Analysys as FRAUD :D!!!

Discussion in 'Trading' started by harrytrader, Jun 9, 2003.

  1. If they succeed one day perhaps we should be obliged to use this kind of network between subscribers and readers :D

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    I think they will pass the law one day (remember it's not justan intellectual debate they have harassed frank taucher and other well known analysts in justice court for several years) it's just a question of time and administration have all the times and people are not vigilant enough except after the fact but too late.

     
    #91     Jun 11, 2003
  2. I just learned The maker of Elliott Wave Analyser is now under attack of CFTC since May 2003 as well as Trend Reflection System for not having put an alert that the results were virtual that no system can garantee profits.
     
    #92     Jun 17, 2003
  3. Nope, you are not missing a thing.

    Peace,
    :)RS
     
    #93     Jun 17, 2003
  4. Of course but if you read what they said about TA they can just take any pretext: they said that claiming to be able to make a profit with TA is fraudulent claim so there is no need for them to look further and to have other pretexts except that they have just been condemned by the Justice Court so that they now must care more about their arguments. In fact if they have to sue every marketers I think it would be 80% of the industries ... so is it the beginning hee hee ? Why don't they care much more about the huge percentage of investors that have been lied to by their friends from Big Brokers (since CFTC members are recruited among them) instead ?

    You should remark that they have annoyed Frank Taucher who is the winner of Barron's challenge of TRUE performance and also in the past Larry William (they couldn't find anything happily for him): is it that they are annoyed that these guys or software are too much efficient ... and market inefficient :D.

    I read a debate on CFTC attitude on a site gathering a group of professionals (I must remember where and I'll post the link) they said that CFTC is abusing their power and said that they are financed by the state budget and they guess it is more a burocratic threat that goes with that public financing to obtain more credits for example.

     
    #94     Jun 17, 2003
  5. I have decided that I will write some background research papers against the possibly false or illogical claims of CFTC below. I have enough studied the state of the art in stock market modelling by latest scientific researchers (when I began to do fundamental research myself so as not to reinvent the wheel if posible ) to be able to ridiculise them because what they affirm here about scientific research was paradigm admitted 50 years ago but the latest scientific researchs have changed since hee hee !

    "Technical analysts . . . first make a deterministic (one might say
    spiritual) leap of faith that non-random price patterns exist. They
    then illogically posit that these patterns, once revealed to the few
    (or indeed -- through marketing -- to the many), may be successfully
    exploited in trading. To accomplish this, of course, the 'pattern'
    must remain undetected by others (otherwise the increased market
    activity defeats the 'pattern' by driving the price to a point where
    speculation is no longer profitable). See Marshall (1989) at
    263-264. Public policy presumes that markets are not so witless.
    'The presumption is [] supported by common sense and probability [as]
    recent empirical studies have tended to confirm Congress' premise that
    the market price of shares traded on well-developed markets reflects
    all publicly available information . . . ' Basic, 485 U.S. at 246."
    (note 75, page 41)"

    "[A]ny marketer's claim of increased profitability or reduced risk
    through the use of these systems is likely to be fraudulent". (note
    75, page 41)"

    ----

    Also I will put a big disclaimer on my site saying: "We are obliged to declare that people shouldn't consider any trading system as viable ACCORDING TO THE AUTHORITIES LIKE THE CFTC, that they must not take our content as advice or technical analysis that are totally unscientific according to CFTC but as a scientific fondamental research on the market (since our model is based on a serie of econometric equations which is not the case of TA that is based on pure psychology and thus pure faith and not valid proof according to CFTC) like the many that exist currently in scientific laboratories in the world, that we think that our is most advanced but that is opinion not a universal claim, that the way our model should be used by a trader is only subject to his own strategy based on the numerical outputs of the model so that this model should not be considered as trading system, that we give interpretation of it in term of physical law interpretation not in term of advice for buying or selling except for education purpose of possible trading strategies and that performance can only be claimed to be between - infinite and +infinite and due most probably to chance so that we can comply with CFTC rule in the strictest manner" hee hee !

    P.S.: I have a questions will CFTC sue firm like Futures Truth or others that make tests since 20 years on trading systems for others and rank the ones that succeed their tests ? :D
     
    #95     Jun 18, 2003