Discussion in 'Trading' started by BlueStreek, Jan 5, 2008.
just a matter of how it stair steps it`a way down.
Fed cut coming up on January 30.
Market may rally a week before (to plunge again just after the cut).
Don't overshort. You may get squeezed.
The "ET Contrarian Thread Title" indicator is now giving a major buy signal!
Seriously, newspaper/magazine headlines have been good contrarian indicators for decades. At least when a vast majority of them are extremely bullish or bearish. And I suspect the non-elite traders at ET may be even more accurate...
it will go under 12k. it has to because the housing turmoil is far from over and company's have yet to lower earnings guidence enough. we will see that during the next few weeks with plenty of negative profit forecasts.
Imagine if earnings come out positively (minus financials) and reaffirm guidance. Bulk of earnings from s&p's are from Asia and Europe. How will markets spin that? Time will tell.....
Lower earnings are already priced in. It will take something a lot more surprising than that...
There will be plenty of short covering bounces to be sure.
However, oil will be the next bubble to burst, going back to atleast 50 a barrel in the next 2 years, then commodities will start coming back in, definately by the end of the olympics in Bejing.
I expect much slower international growth, with just 2% less growth in China and India combined this will create excess supply on the market as higher prices have brought so much more production online in all the commodities over the last 3 years.
Your one liner post is an emotional response and not the reality. In fact no one knows where it will go till it goes there. When people " feel " things they run up to their keyboards and register their thoughts online as if they are some kind of confirmation.
Trade well, use stops, use common sense.
Why do you think that this will be the case? Please provide solid details to back up this claim.
slower growth faster growth, p/e ratio, it doesn't matter the dow is going to 7200. NO JOKE.
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