I would not be so sure that Sarao LIED so much as he simply did not comply with the CME rules. Also, He didn't lie about the money, he told them where it was. He didn't lie to the tax authorities, he simply hid the money. So bottomline: Nav is extremely bright and did all of these things because he just doesn't follow "the rules" very well.
It's this simple: Sarao is definitely guilty of spoofing - but he's sure the hell *not* guilty for the effects of the flash crash.
But his lawyer cannot prove that without a forensic study of all of the orders and all of the trades on that day. He'll likely have to subpoena the CME Group to get the requisite data files. We are probably talking several million rows of data here.
Sarao never started by admitting to spoofing. He explained clearly that he changed his mind. Sarao never started by acknowledging his wealth overseas. Only after the methods these Law Enforcement used ( bails, and god knows what happens when incarcerated that makes people want to get out of it at all costs) , did he acknowledge his other accounts. Let's just assume he did not realise early enough that he would not be able to fool the Law Enforcement professionnals that are dealing with his case. The 3 london guys played it extremely smart by making it very easy for the Law Enforcement. They made one type of strategic choice when caught. Sarao made a different one. So obviously, same crime, different strategy when caught, different results.
Dow down 1000+ points, who let Navao trade again? He didn't have to it was obvious. He was warned to knock it off several times and he was snarky about it
Certainly a demonstration of how the market can dive, with or without Nav. Most probably supportive of his case.
Yeah, but there was a rationale explanation for this current crash. The flash crash had no real economic or political event that triggered it. Hugely different set of circumstances. Again, Nav and his lawyer need to get the trades and orders the day of the flash crash to show that he wasn't the only one trading with size that day.
If I'm not mistaken at no point did the e-minis flash crash then or even now. ES didn't go to 2$ suddenly. There was obvious hard core selling in futures but at that point it was an irrational stampede for the exits. Arb algos flipping out either on the futures side or equities side really aren't Nav's problem or creation.
Nav fails to delay extradition hearing. Judge to decide if spoofing is illegal under UK law to allow extradition. Nav wears suit! http://www.theguardian.com/business...accused-fails-to-postpone-extradition-hearing
Surely all they can produce is a T&S report which wont show much? Maybe they can hit the CME with a request for the account info sitting behind each quote and trade but there may be regulatory issues with that - I really dont know. Either way, as we all agree, the whole thing is BS and makes the CFTC and the whole industry look incompetent. There cant be any winners in this anywhere. One would have thought though, with so much (frozen) capital, he would be able to get a decent lawyer who would have had this case thrown out for the joke it is.