stock_trad3r, please stick around though, regardless of what the market does. Don't hide for three months again. Just hang around. It'll be fun.
Dude, it's fine to be bullish, but taking almost 20% of heat in the broad market because your bullish is downright suicidal. If your taking that much heat and bullish, I hope your looking out 2-3 years with your trades. To be honest, I'm surprised your not down more than 20%, you must have some serious protection or just don't use leverage that much. I was as bullish as you in October, but when they couldn't make new highs in December that was the sign. DOW is going for 10,780. I thought it may bounce before then, but if you want a Feb-07 or Aug-16 style bounce, it's probably going to have to go there. Maybe they put hammers in here, but still, take a look at the 3 year weekly's, they are all broken. Why are people going to buy this here? Only because it's oversold and look what's happen to the oversold buyers since 1370 on the s&P's.
... You should remember that this downtrend is based off fundamental concerns over the lending system, the housing market and the US consumer. These problems have been discounted for the last two years and are now starting to be priced in. Because market psychology works like herd psychology, the more the market drops, the more weight will be placed on fundamental problems. You can already see this happening in media reporting.
It has more to do with liquidity demand than anything else. Everyone wants liquidity right now but problem is, there is no one on the other side of the trade.
You may be right. At some point, you will be. However, with the elimination of the short-tick rule, all these ETFs, and thousands of hedge funds that can't bear to be underwater, I think such rules are less relevant than in the past.
Even if we enter a bear market, you won't admit it. Hence, you'll never make a final resignation. You'll be yelling "Buy now! Great opportunity, global growth strongest ever!" as the Dow falls through 8,000 (example).
It's like watching the Great Migration on National Geographic. The part where liquidity demand starts to form bottle necks can be compared to the tens of thousands of wildebeast that try to make it a cross the same shallow river crossing. That place is a feeding ground for crocodiles. In the market place bottlenecks cause gaps up or down until counterparties are able to agree on price.