Ugh!! Get me out of this bad losing streak

jeffgus · Dec 5, 2002

If the system is not working. do the opposite. I am a micro trader with a 70% mechanical and 30% discretional system. When my best set ups fail, I reverse and go the opposite way. They are generally the biggest winners.

Market environments change......break out guys have had a tough time, contra trend traders have been cleaning up. Add a new tool to the bag to make your system more robust. 3 types of markets, bull, bear, and mull. This mull market it taking many victims

GD2KNO · Dec 6, 2002

I must admit if i had 4 losses in a row I'd probably shoot myself - but I don't even know what "swing trading' is and it seems i don't want to know
good luck to you
Marielle

rtharp · Dec 6, 2002

Quote from inandlong:

Say you're a farmer and you have been a fairly successful farmer as farmers go. Year after year you farm the way you know works, the way you have been successful. Sometimes it's a dry spring, sometimes it doesn't rain for four straight weeks, sometimes the crop is a bit thin, but overall, it all has worked out pretty well.

One year it doesn't rain for three months, the crop is withered and dying. You have done exactly the same things that have brought you success in years previous. But it doesn't matter. Because the one thing that is not conducive to farming is occuring for an extended period of time.

So what do you do. Do you pull up and move on, change your whole way of farming, put in irrigation for an event that has not as yet been anything other than a rare occurence? Do you examine yourself as a farmer and treat yourself harshly because it didn't rain. What.... you should have known this day was coming?

Well you did know it. There is always the worst drought, the hottest summer, the coldest winter, the most this, the least that...! Does it mean that you knee-jerk and make unnecessary changes? No. Does this mean you are spiralling into the depths of hell? No. It means you are on a losing streak. Is there a cogent and valid reason for it? Yes.

You were on fire before, now you are cold as ice. I bet you weren't asking questions when you were hot. But now you're cold and wonder why. The market sucks right now for your style. That's all. It was great for your style in mid-May thru June. It stinx for your style right now.

I'd do like RS7 said and cut back the size. Streaks are a part of the game regardless of what you might be told. And you know it anyway. So stay cool, cut back, preserve your capital, and live to trade another day.

Other than that, have a beer,

More...

nice post

WDGann · Dec 6, 2002

Quote from inandlong:

Say you're a farmer and you have been a fairly successful farmer as farmers go. Year after year you farm the way you know works, the way you have been successful. Sometimes it's a dry spring, sometimes it doesn't rain for four straight weeks, sometimes the crop is a bit thin, but overall, it all has worked out pretty well.

One year it doesn't rain for three months, the crop is withered and dying. You have done exactly the same things that have brought you success in years previous. But it doesn't matter. Because the one thing that is not conducive to farming is occuring for an extended period of time.

So what do you do. Do you pull up and move on, change your whole way of farming, put in irrigation for an event that has not as yet been anything other than a rare occurence? Do you examine yourself as a farmer and treat yourself harshly because it didn't rain. What.... you should have known this day was coming?

Well you did know it. There is always the worst drought, the hottest summer, the coldest winter, the most this, the least that...! Does it mean that you knee-jerk and make unnecessary changes? No. Does this mean you are spiralling into the depths of hell? No. It means you are on a losing streak. Is there a cogent and valid reason for it? Yes.

You were on fire before, now you are cold as ice. I bet you weren't asking questions when you were hot. But now you're cold and wonder why. The market sucks right now for your style. That's all. It was great for your style in mid-May thru June. It stinx for your style right now.

I'd do like RS7 said and cut back the size. Streaks are a part of the game regardless of what you might be told. And you know it anyway. So stay cool, cut back, preserve your capital, and live to trade another day.

Other than that, have a beer,

More...

Great analogy. Sure, there are ups/downs in a style... I'm not doubting that...

But is it wise to just wait for the drought to be over? Is it wise to wait and hope that the market smiles back at your trading style? I'm really not sure about that.

Money Management Adjustment, diversifying your trading with non-correlating styles, adding filters, and etc are ways to change to market condition. My opinion is rather than being over-passive and wait, there are a lot more things you can do. These things you do during bad times leads greater rewards when the good times come rather than just waiting...

Isn't that how you become a better trader?

So putting all my posts in this thread together... relative under-performance is part of the game but that doesn't give you an excuse to be lazy and hopeful.

If I was a farmer, I'll think of ways to get extra income while the drought is there... what if I raise some cattle? Learn some auto-mechanics to fix my tractors? Learn some things about trading to hedge? When a good season comes, I won't lose my extra edge I get but will actually help me...

harrytrader · Dec 6, 2002

having a serie of successive loss is not anormal but when you reach that number, well you can begin to ask yourself if it doesn't mean you overtrade.

Quote from mattjclark:

16 losses in a row (a lot for a swing trader).

It's absolutely amazing. Breakouts that reverse, reversals that breakout, Chimps could do better than Iâm doing lately. Iâm not being greedy either, most of my trades have only been in the money for a short period of time and then I get stopped out.

Today was capped off by the ultimate insult when after stretching my stop a little further than originally planned (in the hopes that I would see a bounce off resistance) I ended up selling on the low of the day and the stock managed to rally from that exact point to the close.

Ugh!!

Iâm not depressed, I know this just happens sometimes, but Iâm ready for it to end.

Thoughts?
More...

inandlong · Dec 6, 2002

Great point WDGann.

You are absolutely right. My pea-brain wasn't seeing you mesage before, but I see it now and it's a good one.

LOL... the backup plan part makes me think of that flashing banner I see on the top of web pages enticingly offereing... "make $5000, $6000, even more per month at home in your spare time with your computer"!

Hmmmm, I have some spare time now, maybe I'll check it out.

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Ugh!! Get me out of this bad losing streak

jeffgus

GD2KNO

rtharp

WDGann

harrytrader

inandlong