Ugh!! Get me out of this bad losing streak

Discussion in 'Trading' started by mattjclark, Dec 5, 2002.

  1. 16 losses in a row (a lot for a swing trader).

    It's absolutely amazing. Breakouts that reverse, reversals that breakout, Chimps could do better than I’m doing lately. I’m not being greedy either, most of my trades have only been in the money for a short period of time and then I get stopped out.

    Today was capped off by the ultimate insult when after stretching my stop a little further than originally planned (in the hopes that I would see a bounce off resistance) I ended up selling on the low of the day and the stock managed to rally from that exact point to the close.


    I’m not depressed, I know this just happens sometimes, but I’m ready for it to end.

  2. Are you, over all, a profitable trader? What's your YTD earnings and I can give you more feed back?
  3. I hear ya'...I'm 1 for 11 in my last 11 trades and my main system is swing system. Through it I've been backtesting my system more to get comfort that I'm just in a bad spot. Doesn't make me feel much better though. The moves have been quick and then congestion...that's the death of swingers.

    Of course my scalping system is 25 for 27 so far this month with some unusually big winners. I guess that's why you diversify systems.
  4. This is not my means of employment (I'm a software consultant that works when I can and trades when I can't work).

    I think my account was around $12K at the beginning of the year and its now at $16K after a painful 12% drawdown
  5. Yea, amidst my losing streak I have done a lot more testing on a new gap theory. Maybe in the end it will payoff for the better.
  6. 16 losers in a row is pretty unusual. What's your entry setup?

    I'm not trying to pry your secret method out of you or anything,
    but it's probably something similiar that's being used by several
    Elite members and you just might get some helpful tips.

    (and posting a snapshot of a chart would be a plus)
  7. mrktwiz

    mrktwiz must make scarifices to the "trading goddess" to break a loosing really hope it changes for you.

    good trading all

  8. Just a few questions and a thought or two...

    By swing trading then can I presume you mean trades lasting maybe 2-3 days and not daytrading?

    Are you entering the trade with a bias of your own, and not what the market is giving you? I think in other words this is expressed as, are you forcing the trade?

    The time period of your losers began when? The reason I ask this is because the Dow has rallied about 2000 points and the SP500 about 300 points from the October lows, yet swing traders in general seem to be having it tough. My thought on that is if you look at the daily chart in candle form, you can see that although there have been nice gains, the movement has been so herky jerky which will kill swing traders.

    Swing trading needs pause/pullback and then follow-through. So much has been pause, pullback, inch forward, pause, pullback, inch forward.

    How did you do mid-May thru mid July for comparison?

  9. Actually I've had 5 breakevens in that string of 16 but I count paying commissions as a loss.

    I think you've basically hit on the nature of the problem is my setup.

    Here it is in a nutshell:

    I have a database of 1700 stocks from which I filter out stocks based on volatility, short-term trend and volume. I've found these stocks to be particularly defensive in the face of a change in market direction (which is the next part of the setup) as well as good stocks at capturing moves of 3-4% in the direction the market is moving.

    The problem is predicting that market direction. The theory works damn good (if I do say so myself) when you can accurately predict that direction for three or four days, the problem is that most of our trends of late, have only been a day or two in length and the algorithm I use to predict market direction just isn't that good.

    So I feel confident that I'll steer this thing out of the ditch sooner or later, I just need a more consistent market (and a little luck).
  10. Admit you suck and you brought that losing streak to yourself...

    Revisit your trading style and adjust...

    Harsh it maybe from what I am saying but personally, if you think I'm being to harsh then you too should reconsider your own ability too.
    #10     Dec 5, 2002