Discussion in 'ETFs' started by trader99, Nov 13, 2018.

  1. trader99


    So, I've been a bagholder of UGAZ since 2017! The last few weeks it started to creep up. I set my limit sell order at 122(which would make a small profit on my bagholding positions). Everytime it goes up then it comesback down. I've been disappointed for so long with this.

    Then one day last week I checked my account and the order was executed. At that instance I knew it would run away. That was one of my scenarios in my head. But by now I'm too tired of holding this POS ETF. Of course, now it's at $156!

    The ironic thing is I bought the underlying NG futures. I took a very small loss because I was trying to daytrade it even though I knew from the daily chart it would run. With futures even though you are right directionally, the intraday moves can be quite violent.

    Then there's GLD and GC. I've made decent money on the initial run up from August lows. Then I bought again and kept holding because I'm busy with my new job, etc.

    I should have put stops. It gave up all of its open profits and now down. But from a technical chart pattern there's still support at around 1200.

    I think I put too much faith in chart patterns. I should have institute those exit rules and put actual stops in. Not think when I see it I'll exit it. Because when I do see it afterwork, the damages is already done. haha.
  2. Yes. Markets are tricky. You should ALWAYS have stops.

    No. Charts reveal what players are actually doing with their money. You need to be in tune with that as best you can manage.

    There are a gazillion ways to screw up. To win, you need to make well thought-out plays.. and always with stops.
    trader99 and cvds16 like this.
  3. S2007S


    Natural gas has been skyrocketing....over $4.00
    The spike has been incredible...too much hype now...I took the other side in DGAZ at 6.40!!
    Will keep loading up....any talk of "warmer" weather will cause natural gas to plummet an easy 25%!!!!
    Seems the long natural gas and short oil is becoming pretty crowded...I'm bearish on oil but I even think the drop is a bit overdone.
    trader99 likes this.
  4. themickey


    Usually gold is bullish at Christmas period, I believe India & China are usually heavy buyers during this festive season period.
    My suggestion, keep the faith & hold, gold is bottoming.
    trader99 likes this.
  5. trader99


    I hope Ray Dalio is right. I'm holding a sizable percentage of my portfolio in gold options and futures. hehe
  6. trader99


    UGAZ closed at $158! I was holding this POS on/off since 2015! It went down like crazy then each time I get out at small profits. Then in 2017 I bought and it kept going down. Finally got out at $122. Now it's $158!

    The strange thing was that I had this "vision" and intuition that NG will be at $4. I should have held NG despite the violent intraday movements...
  7. S2007S


    That happens with these ETFs....for months and years they look like they aren't going anywhere but down and then out of no where they take off. I had that with a few of my holdings..

    This morning it's nearly $200 I can tell you right now that this spike will not last, UGAZ will fall in half in less than a week!!! The spike in natural gas is completely unwarranted. DGAZ is near $5 this morning. I'm adding more and more and more DGAZ ....I have seen these games before. I could see a slow steady up trend but a spike like this and you can easily make money....I will continue to add to DGAZ on every 10% drop...this mkrnmor I'm doubling my position in DGAZ under $5
  8. S2007S


    Bought more premarket.... Cost average at $5.42
    Loading up....
    Ugaz is going to drop 50% from it's highs ...
    DGAZ going back to $6+
    trader99 likes this.
  9. trader99


    I hope you are right for your own account safety. I think it will go much higher than most people think. Thus DGAZ will go much lower than people think.

    I remember back in 2015 around this time I kept buying NG thinking it will bottom. But prices kept going lower and lower. That's how market works.

    I'm waiting for a total flush out of DGAZ before getting in. Back in 2015 I should have bought DGAZ instead of NG and UGAZ. Eventually I lost a bunch in NG but made some in UGAZ(avg down strategically). Long story.

    I'm learning my lessons about powerful trends and staying away from shorting such a powerful trend until clear signs of a reversal.

    Sure. UGAZ will come down and DGAZ will go up. I just don't know when..
  10. trader99


    NG went as high as 4.9?!! geez!
    #10     Nov 14, 2018