UBS make ridiculous market prediction

Discussion in 'Trading' started by NY_HOOD, Dec 3, 2008.

  1. Mkt.Cap

    Mkt.Cap

    ... seems that some people have to validate themselves and their role in this market environment.
     
    #31     Dec 3, 2008
  2. Cutten

    Cutten

    Equally, a prediction of a 50% fall isn't ridiculous either.
     
    #32     Dec 3, 2008
  3. Cutten

    Cutten

    On the other hand, remember the quote from Livermore:

    "Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations."

    There's a lot to be said for ignoring the short-term volatility, and playing the big swing. Anyone with the foresight to short the S&P earlier this year, and sit on their position while the trend remained down, has made 500+ big figures per contract. I suspect that most people going for the small swings have not made 500 ES points per contract this year.

    Focusing on the big swings doesn't make someone an investors, it just makes them a position trader instead of a daytrader or short-term trader.
     
    #33     Dec 3, 2008