The prediction for market to go up is not ridiculous at all. What may be optimistic/"ridiculous" is the 1300 level. 1150 area is reasonable in the next 12 months.
I'm talking about TRADING. Not "investing". There's a big difference. A distinction that seems to get lost on a lot of ET posters.
Landis, what was the benefit to your post? why waste time posting by printing nonsense. my post caught some interest evidenced by the number of responses. it was a legitimate post as a guy from UBS predicted a 50% run up. you come on and then post a bunch of garbage wise ass comments! you must of been abused at a time in your life.
I am talking about trading also. Underlying long term cycles do affect the bottoms and tops of short term cycles - whether they be hourly, daily, weekly .... I much rather trade with trend. Of course, there is always the possibility of trading against trend - but as I said, I then have to also factor in the cost to my health. I have no medical bills. There is some profit in that.
I understand what you are saying. In my opinion, the big problem with such a philosophy is that we are having "counter-trend" moves that are significantly tradeable . . . there are incredible percentage moves out there that are occurring on a daily and multi-daily basis that are tremendous opportunities. To simply sit back and NOT trade ( from the long-side ) because the indexes are in a very bearish multi-month trend doesn't make a lot of sense to a TRADER. For example, BTU traded from a low of 19.27 this morning up to a high of 22.67 As TRADERS, are we not suppose to take advantage of that 17% move, even though the trend in the indexes is down??? Again, it's unfortunate but I think that a lot of people here on ET fail to make a distinction between those that TRADE ( and trade for a living ) vs those that are investors. In that same vein, the OP creates a thread with a "cut and paste" article about a Wall Street analyst that really has nothing to do with TRADING.
Couldn't have said it better myself. A 50% rally is very feasible. Once the funds realize that the fed's actions are working they will abruptly bid up stocks in anticipation of years of renewed economic growth .
If someone is able to take advantage of counter trend moves, the of course they should trade both ways. I certainly would. But, for myself, I have found it is less stressful, and just as profitable to stay with the trend. Either buy-sell on swings, or just buy on dips for longer trends. It is just my experience, that the overall profitability is about the same. Of course, I accept that others have found a way to trade in both directions and still maintain their health. Unfortunately, I personally know several traders who died early from all of the action. They just burnt out. It is a question of how one wants to live their life.