U.S. Recession

Discussion in 'Economics' started by 1flyfisher, Nov 21, 2007.

  1. Housing slumps have historically led to a U.S. recession. I'd say we are in a full on housing recession with record foreclosures and defaults. Credit crisis, $100 barrel of oil, rising gasoline prices and the cost of a fill up for large SUV/truck/van over $100. Food prices have been experiencing price rises. Consumer confidence won't hold up against all this. This Retail season will be the nail in the coffin. The markets mantra has been that Global economies/multi nationals/technology would save us from negative GDP.

    IF you'd like to discuss the U.S. Economy and whether we go into a recession or we don't....State your case.
  2. poyayan


    Let me ask you this.

    If growth is 2% and inflation is 2.5%, is that a recession?

    Also, you need to pay tax on that 2%.
  3. Sure. Could be 0% growth with 10% inflation, too. Who would know? The Gummint provides the data "they want us to hear", and we're supposed to accept it.

    Kind of like putting the fox in charge of watching the chickens.
  4. LOL none things are big deal

    read this:

  5. Perhaps you didn't understand the question and statements regarding a U.S. recession.
    It was not about prior quarters but upcoming quarters of negative or positive growth. I don't hear anyone saying we are currently in a recession. I certainly am not. I was interested in discussing future quarters and what the numbers may be.

  6. poyayan


    Correct. So, you know Fed's number can only be skewed on the good side.

    As of yesterday, Fed said....
    growth = 1.8% to 2.5% next year trending lower.
    inflation = 1.8% to 2.1% next year trending higher but fed predict it will trend lower.

    So, a couple ticks of revision (afterwards) and we will be right in the middle of recession. ( as an after thought )

    ... but ... but J6P will think we are doing fine with that 1.8% to 2.5% growth and wonder why his paycheck is not going as far as before.

    If global growth story is true, then we will export our way out of recession and a falling dollar just like everyone else...:)
  7. The only reason why people want a recession is not for economic reasons but to make more money shorting. Not gonna happen.
  8. Weren't you the guy saying buy GM at $34 and that it would hit $40?

    Yeeeeeeeaaaaaaahhhhhh! I take your opinions and analysis REAL seriously.....NOT!

  9. Those growth figures are 'real' GDP growth rates, not 'nominal.' In other words, they are after inflation.

    A 4% nominal GDP growth rate and 2% inflation rate results in a 2% real growth rate.

    The Fed's estimates take us nowhere near a recession.
    #10     Nov 21, 2007