U.S. national debt topped $30 trillion, years ahead of schedule

Discussion in 'Politics' started by gwb-trading, Feb 1, 2022.

  1. That's true.Obama and Clinton did and its part of progressives and Democrat ideology.That's partly the reason Obama and Clinton got 2 terms and Biden only got 1.
     
  2. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    Can Trump fix the national debt? Republican senators, many investors and even Elon Musk have doubts
    https://apnews.com/article/trump-beautiful-bill-budget-deficit-debt-31e5857c9e94deaa11a176bbec538831

    President Donald Trump faces the challenge of convincing Republican senators, global investors, voters and even Elon Musk that he won’t bury the federal government in debt with his multitrillion-dollar tax breaks package.

    The response so far from financial markets has been skeptical as Trump seems unable to trim deficits as promised.

    “All of this rhetoric about cutting trillions of dollars of spending has come to nothing — and the tax bill codifies that,” said Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, a right-leaning think tank. “There is a level of concern about the competence of Congress and this administration and that makes adding a whole bunch of money to the deficit riskier.”

    The White House has viciously lashed out at anyone who has voiced concern about the debt snowballing under Trump, even though it did exactly that in his first term after his 2017 tax cuts.

    White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt opened her briefing Thursday by saying she wanted “to debunk some false claims” about his tax cuts.

    Leavitt said that the “blatantly wrong claim that the ‘One, Big, Beautiful Bill’ increases the deficit is based on the Congressional Budget Office and other scorekeepers who use shoddy assumptions and have historically been terrible at forecasting across Democrat and Republican administrations alike.”

    But Trump himself has suggested that the lack of sufficient spending cuts to offset his tax reductions came out of the need to hold the Republican congressional coalition together.

    “We have to get a lot of votes,” Trump said last week. “We can’t be cutting.”

    That has left the administration betting on the hope that economic growth can do the trick, a belief that few outside of Trump’s orbit think is viable.

    Tech billionaire Musk, who was until recently part of Trump’s inner sanctum as the leader of the Department of Government Efficiency, told CBS News: “I was disappointed to see the massive spending bill, frankly, which increases the budget deficit, not just decreases it, and undermines the work that the DOGE team is doing.”

    Federal debt keeps rising
    The tax and spending cuts that passed the House last month would add more than $5 trillion to the national debt in the coming decade if all of them are allowed to continue, according to the Committee for a Responsible Financial Budget, a fiscal watchdog group.

    To make the bill’s price tag appear lower, various parts of the legislation are set to expire. This same tactic was used with Trump’s 2017 tax cuts and it set up this year’s dilemma, in which many of the tax cuts in that earlier package will sunset next year unless Congress renews them.

    But the debt is a much bigger problem now than it was eight years ago. Investors are demanding the government pay a higher premium to keep borrowing as the total debt has crossed $36.1 trillion. The interest rate on a 10-year Treasury Note is around 4.5%, up dramatically from the roughly 2.5% rate being charged when the 2017 tax cuts became law.

    The White House Council of Economic Advisers argues that its policies will unleash so much rapid growth that the annual budget deficits will shrink in size relative to the overall economy, putting the U.S. government on a fiscally sustainable path.

    The council argues the economy would expand over the next four years at an annual average of about 3.2%, instead of the Congressional Budget Office’s expected 1.9%, and as many as 7.4 million jobs would be created or saved. Most economists consider the non-partisan CBO to be the foundational standard for assessing policies, though it does not produce cost estimates for actions taken by the executive branch such as Trump’s unilateral tariffs.

    Council chair Stephen Miran told reporters that when the growth being forecast by the White House is coupled with expected revenues from tariffs, the expected budget deficits will fall. The tax cuts will increase the supply of money for investment, the supply of workers and the supply of domestically produced goods — all of which, by Miran’s logic, would cause faster growth without creating new inflationary pressures.

    “I do want to assure everyone that the deficit is a very significant concern for this administration,” Miran told reporters recently.

    White House budget director Russell Vought told reporters the idea that the bill is “in any way harmful to debt and deficits is fundamentally untrue.”

    Economists doubt Trump’s plan can spark enough growth to reduce deficits
    Most outside economists expect additional debt would keep interest rates higher and slow overall economic growth as the cost of borrowing for homes, cars, businesses and even college educations would increase.

    “This just adds to the problem future policymakers are going to face,” said Brendan Duke, a former Biden administration aide now at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a liberal think tank. Duke said that with the tax cuts in the bill set to expire in 2028, lawmakers would be “dealing with Social Security, Medicare and expiring tax cuts at the same time.”

    Kent Smetters, faculty director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model, said the growth projections from Trump’s economic team are “a work of fiction.” He said the bill would lead some workers to choose to work fewer hours in order to qualify for Medicaid.

    “I don’t know of any serious forecaster that has meaningfully raised their growth forecast because of this legislation,” said Harvard University professor Jason Furman, who was the Council of Economic Advisers chair under the Obama administration. “These are mostly not growth- and competitiveness-oriented tax cuts. And, in fact, the higher long-term interest rates will go the other way and hurt growth.”

    The White House’s inability so far to calm deficit concerns is stirring up political blowback for Trump as the tax and spending cuts approved by the House now move to the Senate. Republican Sens. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin and Rand Paul of Kentucky have both expressed concerns about the likely deficit increases, with Johnson saying there are enough senators to stall the bill until deficits are addressed.

    “I think we have enough to stop the process until the president gets serious about the spending reduction and reducing the deficit,” Johnson said on CNN.

    Trump banking on tariff revenues to help
    The White House is also banking that tariff revenues will help cover the additional deficits, even though recent court rulings cast doubt on the legitimacy of Trump declaring an economic emergency to impose sweeping taxes on imports.

    When Trump announced his near-universal tariffs in April, he specifically said his policies would generate enough new revenues to start paying down the national debt. His comments dovetailed with remarks by aides, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, that yearly budget deficits could be more than halved.

    “It’s our turn to prosper and in so doing, use trillions and trillions of dollars to reduce our taxes and pay down our national debt, and it’ll all happen very quickly,” Trump said two months ago as he talked up his import taxes and encouraged lawmakers to pass the separate tax and spending cuts.

    The Trump administration is correct that growth can help reduce deficit pressures, but it’s not enough on its own to accomplish the task, according to new research by economists Douglas Elmendorf, Glenn Hubbard and Zachary Liscow.

    Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Budget Lab at Yale University, said additional “growth doesn’t even get us close to where we need to be.

    The government would need $10 trillion of deficit reduction over the next 10 years just to stabilize the debt, Tedeschi said. And even though the White House says the tax cuts would add to growth, most of the cost goes to preserve existing tax breaks, so that’s unlikely to boost the economy meaningfully.

    “It’s treading water,” Tedeschi said.
     
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  4. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

  5. nitrene

    nitrene

    This didn't age well. Of course this was right before the market would tank for the next 9 months. You cannot have fiscal responsibilty anymore in the US. All you get is MMT spending and no cutbacks or serious tax rises. DOGE was a joke from the beginning.

    Clinton was the only president who took these things seriously, even Obama's tax raise wan't much. The days of incrementalism to fix the US are over. You need FDR type drastic tax changes.

    The real problem is since the 2008 collapse no one wants to take any losses. You cannot have winners without losers in a market based system. The good thing about real Depressions is you cull the losers and the winners survive. Darwinian capitalism.
     
  6. That is the only way to lower deficits and the overall debt in a substantial manner as inferred by many in this thread. It would be an absolutely economic collapse.
     

  7. Through the combination of tax hikes,spending cuts and economic growth Obama decreased the deficit from 1.4 trillion to 665 billion,that's pretty commendable imo.I do agree we need drastic tax changes.Not just on income but a wealth tax and unrealized gains tax too imo.As long as republican voters vote for Republicans we know that will never happen.


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  8. The Orange Hippo than turned that 665 billion dollar deficit into a 2.7 trillion dollar deficit.


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    After turning a 665 billion dollar deficit into a 2.7 trillion dollar deficit so called fiscal conservatives like ipatent who doesn't want his savings wiped out by the government lowering the debt through inflation thought it was a good idea to vote for Trump again.Now Trump and republicans are about to add more debt in 6 months than Biden did in 4 years.


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  9. ipatent

    ipatent

    Trump's first term included the COVID expenditures.
     

  10. So.

    Obamas first term included Bush's tax cuts,Bush's wars and Bush's economic depression and Obama didn't rack up 8.4 trillion in new debt in 1 term.