U.S. Headed for Worst Recession `in a While,' Jim Rogers Says

Discussion in 'Trading' started by ronblack, Jan 7, 2008.

  1. ronblack


  2. By the time they get around to admitting recession, you better believe we are on the verge of a depression.
  3. Haven't these guys predicted 7 out of the last 3 recessions?

    Not everything looks very rosy right now, but if black swans are possible, intellectually you have to also admit that "white" swans are possible too.

    We create our own reality. We just wind up with what we concentrate on the most.
  4. ronblack


    This reminds me of Orthodox Quantum Mechanics Interpretation in the micro scale combined with statistical mechanics in the macro scale. Very possible.

    Well said Ian. The media people know this well. It's time some traders realize it too.

    IMO the subprime crisis was an example of a "reality" created by some wise shorts. The media assumed the role of the final implementation.

  5. This isn't Rogers "second time around". He's been making forecasts for decades. Naturally, he could be wrong. But he has a history of being right.

  6. time to read up more on this "Jim Rogers" lol
  7. Mvic


    What utter nonsense. I suppose it was the media or "wise shorts" who engineered people taking on mortgages that they were not able to service, and then securitized and sold that debt to people who have more money than brains. This is the problem with traders who think they are smart, they can rationalize everything up until the point where reality smacks them in their big heads. Some are just hopeless cases that will be saying that everything is fine/contained/no impact on the economy with each $multi billion write off and bk.
  8. He is probably correct in the sense that the banks sold the packaged loans at a premium and in turn the investments banks sold to investors at a higher premium and instead of the media screaming for punishment of the crooks they declared a financial disaster where there is none, absolutely. The media effect pushed Bernanke to make the biggest mistake of his life and lower interest rates in an environment of rising prices.

    Probably those investments banks were taking short bets at the same time knowing these SIVs will cause problems.

    Don't you ever underestimate the media effect on markets.

  9. hmmmmm... and so does Ratboy, huh oldtimer?
  10. He has made bad calls before (very bad). Although, I would agree that if we are not already in a recession at this point, we will officially be in one sooner if not later.
    #10     Jan 11, 2008