Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by dealmaker, Jul 31, 2020.

  1. dealmaker


    U.S. GDP

    The U.S. economy shrank by almost a third in the second quarter, when measured on an annualized basis. It was the biggest quarterly decline on record (i.e. since 1947.) Labor data suggests the U.S. is in a recovery now, but let's see how new surges of the coronavirus affect Q3's GDP growth. Fortune
    ajacobson and wrbtrader like this.
  2. wrbtrader


    I just don't get it...just 1 1/2 months ago the White House including the daughter of Pres. Trump were touting spectacular numbers and many other's on advisory table.

    I do understand Pres. Trump disconnect from reality but I just don't understand the same with those economic advisors at the White House.

    Economists around the world (except the White House) were doubling / tripling down about this back in May about what was to come by July. On the flip side, many well know owners of tech companies have added billions of dollars to their pockets. :mad:

    athlonmank8 likes this.
  3. ironchef


    A little misleading. Actually in absolute term down ~10%. EU was worse, down ~12%. China was actually up a few %.
  4. DaveV


    I disagree. The Labor data show that whenever any lockdown restrictions is eased, some employers will rehire workers. However, what is alarming is the growing number of permanent job loses from businesses that are not coming back.

    The government is basically propping up the economy with $600 additional unemployment checks and no-eviction mandates. Also remember that many of the businesses that took the government loans/grants agreed not to layoff any employees before Sept 30th. Expect massive layoffs starting in October.
  5. tiddlywinks


    2019 US GDP was approx 21 Trillion.
    Since the pandemic, the US Fed monetary efforts and the political fiscal efforts have REPLACED around 7 Trillion, or about 1/3 of 2019 GDP. We have basically been running in place, which at least partially explains the US stock market behavior. It also at least partially explains the lack of inflation which many have still not learned, is not a truth regarding quantity of money theory.

    Feel free to run similar simple analysis on other major continents/countries.

    The buffoons in D.C have no interest in further replacement of continuing loss of GDP through fiscal policy and the Fed can not envision a need for such monetary policy. Whatever else is offered as part of a solution money-wise, will not be enough!!

    All is not dire however. It takes time to destroy confidence.
  6. Lol you can't take China's numbers seriously, their gdp numbers from 2 months ago were impossible to achieve unless they were straight up trading with aliens.
    apdxyk likes this.
  7. bone

    bone ET Sponsor

    The Bureau of Economic Analysis states growth at annualized rates. In other words - it exaggerates changes.

    The annualized real GDP drop of 32.9 percent for the second quarter amounts to a quarterly drop of about 9.5 percent.

    Is it bad? Horrific.

    Why did the S&P come off only 12 points and change yesterday (the day of the release) and rally hard late today? Because more recent data is encouraging, all factory, retail, wholesale and grocery inventories are crazy low ( requiring a domestic production surge ), there is an eternal bid, and at some point life will go on.
    apdxyk likes this.