U.S. GDP Components -- Not Good

Discussion in 'Economics' started by jamis359, May 27, 2008.

  1. source: http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/net/page6.pdf

    GDP Component | 2007Q4 | 2008Q1

    Final Sales 2.37 -0.21 [down big!]
    Consumption 1.58 0.68 [consumers tightening]
    Fixed Investment -0.62 -1.50
    Nonresidential 0.63 -0.28 [R.E. slowdown hits office space]
    Residential -1.25 -1.23
    Government 0.38 0.39
    Exports 0.77 0.67 [even exports are soft]
    Imports 0.24 -0.44 [imports way down]
    Change in Inventory -1.79 0.81 [saved Q2 from recession]

    Real GDP Growth 0.58 0.60 [two weak quarters in a row]


    Consumption, investment, imports, final sales ... all fell off a cliff. The only GDP component that went up was inventories. Scary implications for this quarter. Once inventories get filled up in a weak demand environment, that's it, she's done: orders dry up, production slows, pink slips go out... and now add $4/gal gas on top of it all. Hard to see how the U.S. will avoid recession in Q2 2008.