What can we expect from the new economic supercycle? https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ar-AA1sAoAM
That didn't happen on its own. ...just like here and abroad all equities and indexes move higher on government intervention. The new world markets need free handouts, trillions of dollars literally printed to prop up stocks. This isn't an organic natural type of market, these are markets that need every bit of help they can get, day in and day out, which is why every cent of gain you see in your portfolio you should thank the federal reserve for.
Unless China wants to do what the US did during 2009-14 or recently during Covid and put in like 40-50% of the GDP into stimulus+Fed bazooka, the current rally is just another dead cat bounce. My guess is they will be forced to put in more stimulus by the market if they want a semblance of capital markets. The evidence since 2008, however suggests they don't seem to care about capital markets since the CSI goes down year after year. The real problem, as far as I can tell, is that the public put all their savings into real estate speculation but that market has now collapsed so there will be no quick recovery. So there will be no private investments upcoming so the government has to do it but they seem very wishy washy about it. These half-assed stimulus measures they proposed won't cut it. The lesson of Japan I believe is that the longer you wait to prop up real estate the worse it will be. Just look at the lesson the US learned for not bailing out Lehman Brothers. There was panic when the money markets went below $1. The credit markets froze. When TARP wasn't passed the first time the DJIA had the worst point drop in its history.
There was panic because of previous market bailouts. When you only get used to bailouts and the fed back stopping the market consistently the slightest miss of saving a small situation becomes extreme panic.....the markets are so used to fed intervention these days that the smallest of situations will cause fear that is literally off the charts. ...meanwhile a week later and trillions of dollars everything is back to normalization like the unwinding of the yen carry trade or the few banks that went under in 2023. The markets know the fed will rush straight to any problem and patch it up with more money. .if it were not for TARP the dow would be under 10k ....
We probably thing they are foolish, and yet many in the US put our savings into Bitcoins. May be Bitcoins are more useful than real estates?
Here is a good laugh.... More hype on the fairytale coin..... Wall Street bulls think Bitcoin could soar as much as 73,000% Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani estimates Bitcoin could reach $500,000 by 2029 and $1 million by 2033 as the cryptocurrency is made increasingly mainstream by spot Bitcoin ETFs. The latter figure in that forecast implies about 1,390% upside from its current price of $67,000. Cathie Wood at Ark Invest estimates Bitcoin could hit $3.8 million by 2030, provided that institutional investors "allocate a little more than 5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin," which she sees as a likely outcome. That forecast implies 5,570% upside from its current price. MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor estimates Bitcoin will reach $13 million by 2045, though he sees a bear-case scenario where it stops at $3 million and a bull-case scenario where it surges to $49 million. Saylor's base case implies 19,300% upside from the current price, but the bull case implies 73,000% upside.
Well you live in a dream world where the Oligarchs do nothing and accept poverty. Did you really believe they would do nothing? How naive can you be? Your attitude is the same as the ZeroHedge knuckleheads who thought CPI was going to skyrocket after QE. In reality deflation came instead. Deflation is what's coming to China just like it came to Japan because they waited too long to fix their monetary problems. My guess is China will not do bailouts like the west and deflation will be the result. Before TARP, the US government didn't really bailout corporate malfeasance in fact GWB sued the oblivion out of Enron, Worldcom & Andersen. The 1998 Fed bailout of LTCM was probably the only one that I can think of. Yes since Lehman the US government has gone full MMT, that much is true. No more downturns seems to be their goal.
A few years back, my wife's co-worker, a twenty something, bought 10 Bitcoins for $125 each. She asked me if she should buy a few and I told her absolutely not, because its value was based on the greater fool theory. I didn't realize the world is full of greater fools and may not run out of greater fools any time soon.