Economy could be in recession: report By: Reuters Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:57 AM ET http://maconareaonline.com/news.asp?id=14999 NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. economy may be in recession, based on Midwest manufacturing data, a report said on Thursday. According to Kingsbury International, a partner of NAPM Chicago which puts out The National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago business barometer, "the U.S. economy could be in a recession at this time." "In four of the last five recessions, the slowing of the Chicago business barometer signaled a recession either one or two years later", the report said.
Here's a legitimate question for everyone: The yield curve is now inverted. In fact, it's more inverted now than 2 months ago. So, what cogenmt arguments can be put forth to negate the importance of the inverted yield curve (and its high corollary as a recession predictor) 'this time?'
a recession is described as 3 quarters in a row of negative growth. since the last quarter was better than 2.5% growth and we have yet to even have one quarter of negative growth you might be jumping the gun a bit.