Not at all. I was merely pointing out a common pattern on these boards. Remember the Euro is dead phase many went through here? Now - not a peep. Similarily, when USD was getting hit not too long ago, all of the threads forecasted a USD collapse (and END OF THE WORLD OOOooooo). I trade with the trend and stay away from falling knives, so I wouldn't go long USD. But the ET thread count is piling up...
and the Fed announces another $32B of POMO in the next month, in 9 drowning operations of liquidity to buy Amazon, google and apple.
the dollar's been declining since 1985 - over 25 years however, I'm keeping in mind 2 scenarios after the dollar bottomed in 2008 the rally, decline, rally and current decline together suggest waves 1-ABC-2 of a new bull market although this C leg could in theory stop anywhere, a horizontal ABC would mean the price still has to drop to the 74 area to complete the formation the second scenario is a reversal formation is forming, an AB/inverted H&S that would likely see the price fall to the 70 area in either case a possible time target would be March 2011 - coinciding with the 08 bottom; while there's the possibility of the 74 being reached by year end, given the current state of affairs in the US and forthcoming 'winter doldrums' period, March is the more likely time period
The question is at what rate of inflation will people stop using dollars, and start using gold, for purchases because of the convenience factor? People should know that in Zimbabwe a few years ago, individuals stopped using the currency for exchange, even though it was still in circulation. This was because the hassle of converting it the prices which were changing almost minute by minute was too much. So mucch of Zimbabwe started using gold, again. A stable exchange rate is needed for money. Just like Zimbabwe, if one has to choose between using a steady 1 or 2 grams of gold per week for food, or an increasing amount of cash per week for food, the choice is obvious. My guess is it would only take a rate of a few percent per week for the switch to gold to start.
Just curious, how do you go about comparing the U.S to Zimbabwe? It's like comparing Google to Elite Trader. One is absolutely useless, the other............
Our opinions differ as I find ET to be infinitely more useful than google, which I rarely use for searches. I'll try to explain the rest tomorrow.
As documented in The Creature from Jekyll Island, the value of every fiat currency (not backed by gold or silver) in history has eventually gone to zero. Whether the dollar eventually goes to zero is impossible to predict, but it almost certainly will decline substantially more in value. Gold and silver are more of a way to protect one's wealth at this point. If we ever do get the point where people lose faith in the dollar and start using gold and silver for exchange, make sure you have plenty of lead as well.
USD/JPY 81.17, EUR/USD 1.4080, AUD/USD 0.9966, USD/CHF 0.9520... Bye, bye US Dollar. You get what you deserve.... The FED must receive the answer from currency traders around the world... Hammer the USD into oblivion !