Based on what I have seen so far I expect the IFR will turn out to be 0.7% or 0.8%. But it is very early in the COVID-19 situation and these numbers may change as more studies are done with waste, anti-bodies, etc. to get better clarity on the number of infections. My thoughts on value of IFR will evolve as more information becomes available. This is only proper in a fluid situation near the start of a pandemic.
Are you serious? You have to be fucking kidding me. I put out a post over a month ago that predicted the death rate would around .6 to .7% and a bunch of buffoons, with you are their ring leader, were bashing me left and right. These numbers will not change. They may manipulate the data to get them to change but the real number will not. There is a key indicator staring you straight in the face. To bad you, and the experts haven't figured it out.
Lots of speculation two months ago and more complete data now. That's kind of the whole problem isn't it? On nothing but wild eyed speculation the decision was made to crash the economy into a brick wall. Two months later we now know the number of dead will not be anywhere near the original projections which were off by a jaw dropping margin. And we still have government acting as if those orginal projections have come true. It was irrational panic which drove us to the cliff. It's complete insanity to now drive off it with a continued shutdown.
You are confused once again. The CASE FATALITY RATE is expected to be 5.8%; this is the figure used to officially count mortality of a disease. The INFECTION MORTALITY RATE is based on estimates of possible infections. This is expected to be at 0.5% to 0.8%. This is very different than the case mortality rate -- which you were claiming would be below 1% -- -which is obviously incorrect.
"Empty" hospitals is a good thing. You seem oblivious to the fact that safety measures are the main reason the hospitals are not full. You know what else keeps hospitals more empty ? Jack up health care costs as much as you can and let millions of people go uncovered. Oh right, already a reality in the US. So check on that too. More then 60K dead in the US, still not fully under control, and you are on here daily arguing that's its not a bad situation everybody get out there and mingle again. Get a clue man it's an absurd take on things. Are you really so devoid of patience and self control that you would risk the lives of thousands of people ( low end ) to satisfy your own personal needs and wants ?
Not at all what happened. US deaths are actually worse then most expected. You are referring to projections based on the US ignoring the virus and carrying on like it didn't exist. Basically the Trump early days strategy. And it's pretty clear that there are enough dumb Americans out there that would have spread the disease rather easily if left entirely to make their own decisions. Like the young people who went to party on the beaches long after the threat was clear and are documented to have brought back the virus and infected many others in the communities they live in. What is irrational is how some of you acting after such a short break from regular life. It's selfish really. The protests out there and rants on here are not a reasonable reaction.
Just spitballing some rough numbers. Number of actual infected is probably 20 million. Of that 20 million a million or so need treatment meaning 95% need no in patient treatment. Of that million 5 to 6 percent will die. That means only 5 percent or so of the infected need to hospitalized and 95 percent of those hospitalized survive. Throw out all those who were near dead to begin with and you end up with a number which doesn't even come close to justifying what we have done to our economy. We're probably talking about less than ten thousand who died of Covid with no preexisting conditions and most of them living in NYC and New Jersey. In essence we're destroying our country to try amd save about 2500 people in the other 48 states. Toss the large urban areas and what do we have? Couple hundred people across the nation. I hope they were something special because tens of millions are going down the toilet as a result
I know it's selfish for those 30 million unemployed due to this to expect a job. Fucking ingrates. And those thousands of small business men and women watching their lives get blown to pieces. Selfish pricks can't make a sacrifice? And the endless skyrocketing taxes which will be paid by generations to come. Welcome to serving the greater good kiddies, it's on you now, all because your parents were to pussified to deal with catching a fucking cold.