OK.. I feel a lot more stupid now after reading above. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-new...-store-employees-n1198736?cid=sm_npd_nn_fb_ma Oklahoma city ends face mask rule for shoppers after store employees are threatened "Store employees have been threatened with physical violence and showered with verbal abuse," the Stillwater city manager said. "There has been one threat of violence using a firearm." Many years back I used to work policing people on an area of Africa with an average life expectancy of 35. The lack of education and few peers passing knowledge partially due to a high HIV death rate meant 30 year olds had the minds/maturity of youger teens. If course they were not, they had the bodies and strength of men. Combined with the muti magic guys spreading disinformation for a living like conservative media... America is now a backward village.
Let's get to the math.... CFR (Case Fatality Rate) = 67,595 / 1,165,953) = 5.79% Case Fatality Rate in the U.S. for COVID-19 The Case Fatality Rate for the seasonal flu is 0.1% (in a bad flu season). In the new briefings from Governor Cuomo he estimated the Infection Fatality Rate in the U.S. is between 0.5% to 0.8% for COVID-19. The Infection Fatality Rate for the season flu is 0.025% WHO estimated back in January based on Wuhan information that the Case Fatality Rate for COVID-19 was between 2% to 3%. They later revised this value to 3.4%. The most recent projection from WHO for Case Fatality Rate is 5.8% (which the U.S. is close to). Yearly is clearly talking about Infection Fatality Rate when he mentions his figures; not Case Fatality Rate. Let's read his own information in the article. "Yealy raised a hypothetical situation, in which roughly three percent of Allegheny County residents were infected. That would mean an estimated 36,000 people contracted COVID-19. As of Thursday, the novel coronavirus death toll for Allegheny County is sitting at 94. That puts the death rate closer to .25 percent than current estimates as high as seven percent. “There is a big difference between 0.25% mortality and 7%,” he said." Obviously Yearly is making an improper comparison between Infection Fatality Rate versus Case Fatality Rate. Yearly is making a number of assumptions in what he states is a "hypothetical situation" - he uses this to extrapolate the number of infections for Allegheny County residents (which has no evidence backing the case numbers) to arrive at a number of people he believes are infected in the county. He is using this math to support the opening of the local hospital for elective surgeries. Obviously as the chair of the hospital he is desperate to get revenue rolling again. He is merely "talking his own book" and being disingenuous so he can re-open the hospital doors to all patients with the focus on making money.
Problem is we can't do the math because we don't know what that denominator really is or what the numerator is for that matter. Should that case number of treated be higher? How many people sweat it out at home, never seek treatment and recover just fine? Then we still need the exact breakdown of those who died were on their death beds to begin with. That means throwing out every single nursing home patient who died. Every single person that had serious lung issues, serious heart issues, morbidity obese, and any other serious health problem. It is easy enough to see that both the dead and the treated need to be more accurately calculated.
The CDC, WHO and other medical organizations look at the death rate based on the Case Fatality Rate for a disease. In the long term the number of cases can generally be defined by medical testing and diagnosis. In terms of cases the number becomes pretty clear. When new disease breaks out it may take some time for the cataloging and proper attribution for deaths in cases to catch up --- like it is for COVID-19. However in the long term the CFR rate is usually spot on. The Infection Fatality Rate is based on estimated infections. It is hard to catalog infections when they are not reported -- there are significant questions if the Infection Fatality Rate really provides any value when it is not based on actual recorded cases but projections (usually with no proof) about the number of infections. It is interesting to note that university professor and others are making all sorts of projections about the number of COVID-19 infections based on flawed anti-body study statistics. Some claiming that the entire population of NYC has already been infected. At the same time, studies of waste in 63 cities across 39 states in the U.S. are showing the COVID-19 infection rate is only 15% to 80% above than the reported cases. Not hundreds of times more than the reported cases.
This was true a couple of months ago. Now there have been many studies and lots of data collected. Italy (absolute numbers using excess deaths and total population sizes) New York (large scale anti body samples) Holland (large scale anti body samples) Diamond Princess Cruise ship (absolute numbers, everyone got tested) All put the IFR between 0.5% and 0.8%
BTW the statistics for the Diamond Princess where everyone was tested are: 13 deaths / 712 positive cases = 1.83% Case Fatality Rate on the Diamond Princess 645 are totally recovered. There are 54 active cases with 4 that are critical.
The CFR and IFR are identical for the ship as they caught pretty much everyone who was infected The 1.83% has to be adjusted down given the older demographic. Apparently when you do that it comes down to around 0.8%
Another good data source is Bergamo in Italy: "With essentially everyone in Bergamo infected, and the known deaths since January — predicted to be more than 6,000 out of a population of 1 million — it was easy to calculate the lowest possible infected fatality rate: 0.56%" https://news.berkeley.edu/2020/04/24/study-challenges-reports-of-low-fatality-rate-for-covid-19/ In Holland they did a large sample anti body testing. Estimated 500,000 nationwide infections. The death count at the time was about 3000. So IFR of 0.6%. But two weeks after the study the death count had jumped to 4500. Which indicates a CFR of 0.9%. Taking into account the lag in deaths.
You are failing to account for the top tier healthcare that was provided immediately in Japan for those seriously afflicted on the ship. This is cited regularly for keeping the death rate low.
The death rate is bad, higher than i would like to admit, i try to be optimistic. I suspect, the worldwide IFR is going to be closer to 1% than 0.5%. Gold help the old and vulnerable in October.