This is a similar issue that I had as well. I thought for the longest time that there is no way "they" would let crypto succeed. I also thought that it was a bubble, but after the 2017 crash and rise, that excuse was pretty much eliminated since true bubbles, like the tulips, don't come back. In order to believe in crypto, you have to be either young and dumb enough that you don't understand how the the world works, which is why I think many kids get it and "invested" so early, or somehow have the right combination of foresight and risk taking. We see time and time again that you can't ever fight the big guys. Central banks always win, insiders always win, hedge funds vs. the retail trader, the list goes on. People who have been around long enough have learned to spot out scams and this is a very good tool to have. Crypto will literally be that one thing that bucks the trend in the financial arena. To believe in crypto is a much bigger hurdle to overcome than lets say thinking that Amazon will overtake retail, or that Tesla with years of cash burn and stiff competition will get to where it got. I honestly don't blame anyone for not seeing it. In fact, if our brains were wired in such a way to be more open to new things when we fully understand how the traditional system works, I think the world would be filled with many more casualties. Our brain's job is after all to keep us safe, and phrases such as "don't fight the Fed", or "stop looking for tops" are true over 95% of the time. Honestly, these same kids who might be making a killing on crypto are simply lucky to have been born when they were. They have the huge advantage of a reckless FED that is bent on destroying fiat. When else have we had that in the history of the FED? Also, look at the power on meme stocks. Even the hedge funds were taken for a ride because they underestimated the power of the co-ordination of thousands of traders. This would not have been possible just a few years ago. This also would not have been possible if the world wasn't shut down and people had stimulus checks to spend. So I think any rational person has to realize that crypto snuck in the door at just the right time when all the planets were aligned. These kids are literally playing a game before they even realized the real value of money. Right now you still have thousands of young women on IG showing off their tits and ass and thinking that this is somehow a real job. They think that "influencer" is a worthwhile endeavor, and they think that they can somehow parlay this into meaningful work that will last a lifetime. They probably also think that people really care about what they have to say, when the truth of the matter is that everyone is only paying attention because they are showing skin. In just a few short years, I'm sure they will get a rude awaking when they learn their "sexuality" is now worthless and no longer "saleable" at any price since its been replaced with AI that is incredibly cheap to produce and so realistic. Heck, given how much makeup these girls wear, I'm surprised some of them aren't androids already. I sure as hell can't tell what's real anything. Maybe its lots of makeup... maybe its lots of retouching... or maybe the whole thing is just CGI. Moving on tough, I also think that before the path for world wide crypto adoption is clear, many coins will have died, some chains may in a fraction of a second break and lose all value in that instant, and that most NFTs will go to zero. (lots of experts in this field say exactly this). And sadly, when the crypto adoption becomes more and more necessary, it will also means the traditional system has more and more cracks, and this will be incredibly painful for many in the world. So as I've said before, the transition will in many ways not be something to celebrate. The acorn in the soil after all only gets a chance to grow when the forest around it has burned down. So in many ways, I think everything is still up in the air. But the one thing that is sad to have missed was the asymmetric trading opportunity of cryptos. Even for the people who don't believe in it long term, any trader will tell you that a bet where a 100x is possible even just 5% of the time is a trade you should put on every time. Looking at these coins go from 2 cents to 5 cents, and then 5 cents to 10 cents, maybe then 10 to 20, and of course multiple dollar quickly thereafter, its now painfully clear that holding something solid like Amazon or Google or Tesla and hoping for a 50% or 100% gain would have just been a waste of time in comparison. The typical 10% per year seems like not even worth the effort. When GME was doing its thing at the beginning of the year and doubling or tripling like a penny stock, this too was almost child's play when you consider what crypto was doing. So trading crypto, with the huge asymmetrical advantage of thousands of percent gains in only months that took traditional companies years to manage is something that maybe an experienced trader could have seen. But mass crypto adoption when the world was always tightly controlled is I think much harder for most people to see.
There's an old movie called "The Princess Bride", battle of the wits scene, it comes up in convos on game theory, prisoner's dilemma, poker situational discussions he knows that I know that he knows... piezoe associating cryptos with tulips is dishonest and needs to be called out. He (or she) knows better J. Dimon, Dalio, and others at the top of the banking system hierarchies imho understand the design complexities and fundamentals of Bitcoin and cryptos ecosystem and how they derive their value In one of the books I read, J. Dimon was contacted directly by W. Casares (Xapo) in 2013 I even suspect Bill Gates, Buffett and Munger understand more than they pretend to There's no incentive or benefit for any of them to endorse bitcoin and cryptos and in fact may hurt their existing financial interests. I do suspect they own bitcoin and/or other cryptos as insurance I read "The Bitcoin Standard" and got a cliff notes on history of money but these guys probably have a whole library in their heads about the history and the intricacies of monies and value system throughout history CGI? This whole universe is probably a simulation in computer... none of us, none of these is real
that might be the case but there is no denying that crypto is a giant industry right now, that includes NFTs, and as traders i think its fine to make the best of the current situation, in the end we trade to make a couple of bucks thats why i keep a crypto portfolio as well. there was even a time where forex brokers offered crypto like hotforex, i guess there are still brokers offering it. I dont think its a fiat vs crypto its just how the trend goes and where poeple put their money that gives them all values.
There was an article in today's Bloomberg: "Crypto's Collapse Tests Faihful's Infinite Supply of Optimism" When you look at the chart, does it seem to you more a gamblers medium or an Investors? When the next low has been put in, as it eventually will be, and probably soon, draw a line through the lows and see if the rate of return together with the volatility satisfy your requirements for a good investment, or is the appeal more for the get rich quick crowd? Compare to the lows of a similar chart for say AMGN and compute Amgn's return including dividends. I don't see anything wrong with trying to get in with a limited portion of your capital once a bottom is made, but for god's sake please don't use margin to do it! Here is an excerpt from the Bloomberg article: ... "But, crypto fans have an infinite supply of optimism and many are confident that with Bitcoin already spending two-thirds of the year in the red, better times could come soon. At some point, sellers will become exhausted and the market could see some capitulation soon, said Matt Maley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co. “When that happens, the institutions will come back in in a meaningful way,” he said. “Once the asset class becomes more washed-out, they’ll have a lot more confidence to come back in and buy them. They know that cryptos are not going away, so they’ll have to move back into them before long.” Bloomberg The news cycle has been relentless. Regulators from Russia, the U.K., Singapore and Spain all announced interventions that could undermine crypto companies looking to grow in those regions, while tightening U.S. monetary policy left traders anticipating several interest rate hikes this year. The Bloomberg Galaxy DeFi Index of digital coins involved in decentralized finance fell 14% in the past week. Meanwhile, the Biden administration is preparing to release an initial government-wide strategy for digital assets as soon as next month and task federal agencies with assessing the risks and opportunities that they pose, according to people familiar with the matter. That weighed on Bitcoin enough to send it to within a whisker of $34,000 on Saturday. Bitcoin’s decline since its November high has wiped out roughly $600 billion and greater than $1 trillion has been lost from the aggregate crypto market. While there have been much larger percentage drawdowns for both Bitcoin and the aggregate market, this marks the second-largest ever decline in dollar terms for both, according to a Friday note from Bespoke Investment Group. The largest ever occurred last summer, when a decline that peaked at the end of July wiped out $646 billion for Bitcoin. 2600 $Eth would be the next support. Hoping and thinking it holds. Unfortunately Russel has like 14 percent more to go before it bottoms. Won’t be a straight line down. This will be a year where people realize being an investor is a difficult job. — Mike Novogratz (@novogratz) January 21, 2022 Roughly 290,000 traders had their positions closed over the 24 hours through Friday evening in New York, with liquidations totaling more than $1.1 billion, according to data from Coinglass. Crypto Liquidations Leave Their Mark Bitcoin price fall pushes out traders as crypto seeks a new baseline Source: Bloomberg, Coinglass Note: Data as of Friday evening in New York It remains to be seen if Bitcoin’s tumble below the psychological level of $40,000 will serve as an inflection point. Crypto proponents say heavy liquidations often serve to cut out the froth in easy-win asset speculation, helping to solidify new bottoms in the market. “Fear and unease among investors is palpable,” said Antoni Trenchev, managing partner at Nexo. “If we see a bigger selloff in equities, expect the Fed to verbally intervene to calm nerves and that’s when Bitcoin and other cryptos will bounce.” As the dust settles, key technical indicators show things could be about to look up for Bitcoin. The fall in the crypto’s price on Friday triggered a drop below the lower band of its trading envelope. Traditionally, this has been a sign that the selloff might be overdone, and a reversion to the mean is in play but Saturday’s nudge lower suggests the bears remain in charge. “For now, Bitcoin is up against the wall after falling below $40,000. A swift bounce above that key technical and psychological level can’t be ruled out,” added Trenchev. “Failing a quick reversal, I’m not excluding Bitcoin re-tests $30,000 before the Fed changes tack, but that ought to be the bottom, at least in the mid-term. And from there, I think we can have a nice leg up.” ...
This may never happen as countries are considering legalising crypto. People could not lose money as the governments already know that crypto is such a big deal to people all over the world.
CRYPTOCURRENCY $130 billion wiped off crypto markets in 24 hours as bitcoin, ether drop to multi-month lows The cryptocurrency market saw around $130 billion wiped off its value over the last day, as major digital coins continued their multi-day sell-off. Bitcoin and ether are off more than 50% from their all-time highs, trading at their lowest levels since July. The movements in cryptocurrency markets have been correlated to the selling seen in higher risk assets like technology stocks as investors prepare for tighter monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve and higher interest rates.