suntrader is correct... win % is only part of the equation... you can have a really high win rate, but if your profit:loss ratio is inverted, you could still be losing money or risk large drawdowns that could lead to busting your account. in general, you want a system that has both a win% >= 50% and a profit:loss ratio >= 1.5:1. but the one number that you must have is at the end of a week, month, or year, the system has to be profitable. one other thing is that sim trading will always have better results than real time trading.
It is still too early to tell. Won't know if it is sustainable until after a few more months, especially after I scale up.
Nope, you are wrong. I already said for equal risk vs reward my win% is around 65% and in real life trading, you can have a down month, but a profitable year. I will try to explain it this way, say you flip a coin, it comes up heads 50 times in a row, what is the chance that is comes up head on 51 try, it's still 50%. However, if you have an edge with say even 55% win rate, over time, you will be profitable.
There are many systems in C2 with a win rate of 95% or higher and they win every month. And they are all not only worse than my system, they are complete shit. They can have a higher win rate than me since they don't take a loss on one of their trades till it blows up their system.
win amount * win% / loss amount * loss% is a far better measure. There are many others. Do yourself a favor and pickup a trading systems analysis book or two.
Maybe try to learn to read and understand what I wrote. I don't know why it is so hard for you. On my C2 system, my Forex trades had equal risk vs reward. So for example, let's say I would lose $ 1,000 on a losing trade. I would also win $ 1,000 on a winning trades. All of these trades had hard stops and targets. My 65% win rate, allowed the system to generate a profit over time even with some months being negative. Let's say 1st month was 15% profitable, while 2nd month was 8% negative. When you added up all the months for the year, the year % was profitable.
For those reading my posts, I want to explain the difference between a system and discretionary trading. The Forex trades were all system generated, no emotion no revenge trading, no mistakes. All trades were automated overnight and I could see the results in the morning. What I posted win% now is for futures trading which where I have to put in the trade and manage it. It is much harder. To achieve better success, I need to try to be more like a robot on my futures trading.