When you say "probabilities," I assume numeric specificity. How do you arrive at a probability distribution of future outcomes?
Oh so now you tell us! :eek: It was your charts that got this thread sent to chit-chat ... and that was some really funny shit too, I might add.
You aren't betting on a direction. You are betting on your edge. It is your edge that makes you profitable (or lack of one that makes you unprofitable). Good trading
When your edge gives you a signal to enter the market does it tell you to short , go long or both??? then it is tellling you to take action on a direction...you can call it what you want. In the end you are betting the market goes up, down or stays flat....peace
There's no reason they have to be precise - it is better to be vaguely right than precisely wrong. Just look at the facts, and use your judgement & experience.
Okay, but then we're really talking about tendencies and the "balance of probability," rather that numbers to hang a hat on.