I started this thread on the premise that predictions are useless. Cutten's 200 SPX, Port's 550 SPX, etc. Not to single anyone out, it's simply masturbation w/o the payoff. So, if you're inclined to make a prediction, make it here. Nothing beyond 3 months, date and price, and back it up with your ET life. If you're wrong, you leave. If someone challenges your prediction and loses, they leave. I won't be monitoring this thread. Any $ prop-bets are encouraged.
I like your idea. But I wish we can stop people from making new usernames after they've been kicked off.
I welcome every and all predictions. I enjoy Cuttens and port's commentary wether or not they actually made or didn't make money on their call; they are quite enjoyable. And yes I trade and yes I make and lose money on a daily basis... my prediction is garcia will start 3 threads this week... if he doesn't start at least 3 threads I will make sure PABST never posts again...
My prediction is that we will retest the bottom within the next 6 weeks. YEA..I know it's not the greatest call, but it's something to get things started. Reason: 1. 86% of bottoms in recessions get tested. 2. Unemployment is only a lagging indicator when we're sure the Jobs are coming back. It is now a leading indicator when your economy is largely based on consumption and your citizen have no jobs. 3. The U. Mich consumer index survey released last Friday was garbage. If I weren't in the market and I saw the market go up 6 consecutive weeks, I'd be little more confident too. 4. Almost everybody is now a raging bull, with only the smart one's sitting patiently for a healthy pull back to see if this puppy holds. That amount of bulls has hardly ever been good for the market...it creates a crowded trade that leads to an unforgiving sell-off.
These are the three charts that I am basing my predictions and trades off of. The purple line is my target and I have confirmed this with fundamental analysis (P/E10). I will be glad to leave if we never reach 550 and WILL never post here again. There is one more target that I have under the purple line. Cutten, I believe, is basing his target off of the line under the purple which is an uncommon fib retracement that is not used by most traders...if we reach the uncommon line then this will be almost an exact retracement of the Great Depression era stock market. I would like to give you an exact time, but I cant. I would say that the low is set between Fall 2009 and Spring 2010. I have several different models. The worst case model has us sliding into the 300s by Spring 2010. The best case is 550 by Fall 2009.
We are on the final sixth decline. The last and final decline will be the last part of this deleveraging process. The last slide will be much faster and fierce then the Great Depression era market. The current market has been propped up by the government, but these attempts just slow down the process. I welcome you to reality. This next slide will land the market somewhere between my target and Cutten's target. I am hoping that its closer to my target as I dont wish to see society in this state of great disrepair nor do I want my friends out on the street unemployed. However, I cant stop what is happening. I can only tell you it will happen...
If you're going to do this, you'd better define the terms 'prediction' and 'wrong' a little more rigorously. I also don't agree on the losing condition, because it's just not trading-like. Just like i don't lose the farm if one of my trades goes wrong, I don't intend to leave ET (it's too much entertainment value) if I prove wrong on this forecast. I predict that we go back down to 720 in the next month (you can choose May 30th and 720 as the levels). I base this on no fancy charts, but rather on a simple well-known fact that mkt practitioners (economists, traders and others) are known to systematically underestimate the duration of cycles. Similarly, it's also a well-known fact that the mkts overestimate long-run mean reversion in the economy.