Two Buys For Now- IRDM & URGN

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by stonedinvestor, May 30, 2018.

  1. Greetings everyone it has been a long time since we communicated last with you all. I don't know if I'm alone in this feeling but I'm am finding the market extremely boring as of late. Most stocks I would be interested in have already done their thing, prices do seem elevated.

    It feels like we are getting close to a correction. What impact these new tax rates have on earnings and how investors parcel out that info will be key. I'm looking at those mid term elections as a time to be in a good amount of cash.

    I have a few names I like that have value from here I think and since you all have profited mightily from my past ideas here are a few more--

    IRDM- Iridium

    I've been following these guys for years and I have taken my lumps in the satellite space I can think of two times I was wiped out The original Loral Space and GSAT so warning here I might have a thing for satellite's. But they are being used aren't they... In a big way, the internet is being brought to the far reaches of the earth and the reusable rockets from Space Ex all point to a jump in satellite activity and offerings.

    Recently IRDM caught an upgrade--

    IRDM 05/09 Iridium initiated at BWS Financial Iridium initiated with a Buy at BWS Financial. BWS Financial analyst Hamed Khorsand started Iridium Communications with a Buy rating and $22 price target. The analyst views the satellite launch scheduled for May 19 as the "next immediate catalyst for the stock."

    Well we had that launch and it's off and those birds are up there... How are the earnings...

    Iridium reports Q1 EPS 7c, consensus 0c Reports Q1 revenue $119.1M, consensus $111.61M. The company ended the quarter with 996,000 total billable subscribers, which compares to 869,000 for the year-ago period and is up from 969,000 for the quarter ended December 31, 2017. Total billable subscribers grew 15% year-over-year, driven by growth in commercial IoT and government customers. The company currently has over one million subscribers.

    Ok 1 million of anything sounds good. As I am looking for ideas for the now out a year... I think IRDM is poised to make a statement. This stock has been around the $10-$12 range for a very long time...ABOUT FIVE years! Buying time if you will and now their global spectrum is up there complete-- now it's time to sit back and rake in the cash... I think. I am LONG IRDM as of last week.

    URGN--UroGen is a monster of a stock that I have been charting all the way up. This is an Israeli Biotech Ipo... so there were certainly reasons to be wary. I have been reading through all their papers for a while and what I like is the unmet need aspect as well as their clinical results.

    Recently (April) URGN caught an upgrade-

    UroGen Pharma analyst commentary at Oppenheimer UroGen Pharma price target raised to $75 from $62 at Oppenheimer. Oppenheimer analyst Derek Archila raised his price target on UroGen Pharma to $75 from $62. Archila told investors in a research note that he is increasing his probability of success for MitoGel in upper tract urothelial carcinoma, or UTUC, based on "impressive" interim results from its OLYMPUS Phase 3 study, in which the complete response rate was better than seen in the compassionate use study. Archila reiterated an Outperform rating on UroGen shares.

    Mito Gel is also called UGN 101.

    UroGen Pharma announces 'positive' interim results for Phase 3 trial of UGN-101 UroGen Pharma announced new findings from an interim analysis of the ongoing pivotal Phase 3 OLYMPUS clinical trial of UGN-101, an investigational mitomycin formulation for the non-surgical treatment of low-grade upper tract urothelial cancer. <---Results were presented by Seth Paul Lerner, M.D., FACS, Principal Investigator of the OLYMPUS trial and Professor of Urology at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston in an oral presentation during the plenary session at the 113th American Urological Association's Annual Meeting in San Francisco. The interim analysis from this international, multi-center trial showed a complete response rate of 59%<---- in 34 patients who were evaluated for primary disease evaluation. PDE is conducted four to six weeks after completion of UGN-101 treatment, which was administered once weekly for six weeks. Results showed that 20 of the interim analysis intent to treat population of 34 patients achieved a CR, defined as a negative ureteroscopic evaluation and a negative wash cytology. In addition, five of 34 patients achieved a partial response. Approximately 39 percent of tumors treated were categorized as unresectable by surgery at baseline. The CRs to date have been durable. Of the 20 patients who achieved a CR, 13 patients have reached three-month follow-up and all remain in CR. Four of these 13 patients have reached six-month follow-up <----and one of the 13 patients has reached nine-month follow-up. All remain in CR. UGN-101 appeared to be well-tolerated with most treatment-emergent adverse events characterized as mild or moderate and transient. These included urinary tract infection, flank pain, ureteral narrowing and hydronephrosis and time-limited creatinine elevation. The OLYMPUS trial continues to enroll patients, and top-line results are expected in 2H18.

    Ok I admit these are hard to read and this is a small study but it validates what all prior studies have been saying that not only does UGN 101 work on nearly 60% of poor folks who have cancer of the urinary track as these cured patients continue to recover they are stable still... each update is more months, more good news. Side affects are not a problem this drug is GOING TO BE APPROVED.

    So we do have an expensive stock here at $60. But we are also just in the early innings of what is going to be a successful game. We have a price target above us and news expected throughout the next year. My own personal view is URGN should eventually reach $95+ I'm in right here @ $60.

    "Our team remains intensely focused on our most important milestone submitting a new drug application or NDA to the FDA in the first quarter of with a potential for UGN-101 to become the first ever approved treatment for low-grade UTUC."- The company.

    Lets stop it there for now--two names your not hearing elsewhere. Lets hope they work.- stoney
    elitenapper likes this.
  2. vanzandt


    Glad to hear from you. Hows the swimming pool? It is that time of the year.
    Hey GREAT call on Shot-Spotter (SSTI) at $12... I have to admit I doubted you on that one, and I still think its overpriced.... but wtf! Good job.
    I'll start tracking Iridium too.
    Canopy Growth is on the Big Board now.. (CGC)
    ttyl Stoney!
  3. The pool has changed my life Van. I look forward to these next three months in a big way. YES Sir SSTI did wonders for us and it's funny you mention Canopy because I happen to have been researching all of these names lately and they are so many!!!! It's unbelievable.. But I happen to have centered on one name and purchased it just a moment ago!!! You're Kreskin.. The name is THE GREEN ORGANIC Dutchman!!! Top that!!! I have a lot of reasons I like this one// a lot of this is timing we have the vote coming up these guys have recently IPO'ed they have some cash and the ability to drop press releases after the 7 th. They also seem really smart and and are working with an outfit out of Colorado that i really like alot...Food/ Heb infused & drinks especially coffee... and teas... I'll go into more detail later...I am worried about th Giant short position out on these names but I feel some liquidity with the Dutchman here which is balanced by my embarrassment of having just sent in the buy request but I am OFFICIALLY ADDING
    The Green Organic Dutchman Holdings Ltd. (TGODF) at approx $4.55 to the new elite portfolio!!!-stoney
    vanzandt likes this.
  4. vanzandt


    I saw that one too. I think the CEO was on CNBC last week.
    If Trump ever fires Sessions (or he quits)... these weed stocks will all pop 20% in one day. Then comes the short squeeze. Good pick. g/l
  5. Interesting that you saw the CEO, the Dutchamn has struck such an interesting deal with these guys that make a drink called Ripple. Stillwater Foods out of Denver is this ultra cool young company if I was young this is what I would be doing. It's run pretty much by a girl and this guy and they make edibles and these coffee and teas and they use all really great ingredients it's sort of low dose stuff but in twenty yeas this will be on the shelves of Whole Foods. Anyway I like the mixing in ability of what the Stillwater tech can bring to The Organic Dutchman. As a very recent IPO these guys are in the growth stage and haven't issued so much stock to dilute.

    Another plus for me is these guys are specializing in the organic master bud. So it's niche. There's going to be a whole lot of product that comes to the Canadian market and these guys margins should hold up. The Dutchman has struck a deal with one of the top three players to sell some of their crop at wholesale. I see good and bad with that. There is a stability there.

    I'd rather not buy one of these $1 stock and I'm sure Byron would prefer I don't add one of those to the ET Portfolio.. But around $5... that seems like the right place top grab a fast grower no pun intended. For a year I've been hovering around APHQF Aphira watching it go up and then back down something is not right there I can smell it but the flaw is hard to detect. Most of these stocks have flaws.

    For a conservative portfolio just buy CGC. I'm nervous about short attacks... and think I can hide here in the the weeds with the Organic Dutchman and no one sill spot me until about $15.
    We can weather a round of financing and stock issuance and still be early in the game.

    What surprised me is just how many offerings are out there. -!

    Ok Update** IRDM has looked good $13.50 - $16.00 in just the few days we posted our trade!

    Update URGN Nothing flat.


    IRDM- $13.50--> $16.09 in aftermarket
    URGN- $60.00--> Next week
    TGODF- $4.55--> Closed $4.94

    What we need now is a watch list if anyone has a good idea or two don't be afraid to leave the idea here.

    WATCH LIST** IMMU @ $22.71 // XCRA @ $ 13.90 // LITE $61.30 (already own) // WPC $67.25 (already own) SNE @ $47.67 (already own)

    I'm short on names so I have a few holdovers from our last thread here stocks I still hold Sony, LITE, & WPC which is a REIT.-stoney
    vanzandt likes this.
  6. Morning Thoughts-

    If seven cups of coffee doesn't give me an investment idea, what will? Apple will be having one of their development update days. This could impact LITE. This name is interesting because their core business had been in decline, it's bottomed and they have this very snazzy future with 3D chips that go into things like Apple headsets that may be talked about today...

    Most likely today would be a double down day for me as I have had this stock for the whole downturn... I'm probably at a break even point here after nearly a year!

    I'm really concerned I can't find that many ideas. Is it me or the market? For me I have to like an idea going out at least a year.. I can see no one here has an idea... It's interesting, I haven't been around this site for a while, I take full NY Giant seasons to do my other important Internet work... Things felt more zippy here in the old days. Perhaps all of this is indicative of a fairly valued market.

    Corrections are very hard to spot ahead of time, you have to think with the big tax cut everyone is going to be feeling great... or are they? The personal tax ct was BS and I don't think that many people are going to be feeling that much better. Especially after gas is figured in.

    The most interesting story in stocks right now is the battle for the patent concerning the Crisper Biotech stocks.. with one side being represented by EDIT and the other CRSP & NTLA. I will come back at some point and explain more.. I'm reading up on it... dense stuff--big drawn out case in which the initial official ruling was in favor of EDIT but not exclusive it was both parties patents are doable, ect... but EDIT won and they have this dude Feng Zhang. Every good story needs a Feng Zhang and we have one but according to what I have read the other side, the losing side was a bunch of Cal Berkley scientists, Two and they actually applied first to the patent office.. only to be outwitted by Feng who applied shortly afterwards but requested an " expedited review " for $40. Was that the best $40 ever spent! Time will tell.

    These three stocks seem interesting and challenging... which will be the big winner in the space? CRSP has got the best symbol; first -mover there! NTLA has some uniqueness, also a good symbol more of a food feel.... and EDIT-- that's what we are doing editing genes here-- another good symbol! This sector of biotech seems primed for the upcoming year-- some clarity on who owns what by the courts is underway right now. So tracking EDIT & NTLA & CRSP might be a good thing to do for the next month. For some reason I am drawn to NTLA.

    I'm going to the greenmarket. Watch List: A) LITE B) NTLA- stoney
  7. vanzandt


    Up 8% yesterday Stoney. Highest 1 day volume yet... almost 1M shares.
    $5.42. Lookin good. :sneaky:
  8. It's A Great Day To Be An Organic Dutchman!!!! Down early looked like a pullback but it was a fake out!! I love those set ups!!! This is going straight to $15!!! Whoops did I say that.

    This is like the old AOL here Van, just me and you making money!!! I remember the old days... I wonder if those eyes are still out there... a certain retired fellow living in the blissful Caribbean or Hawaii I forget, a Guitar player from Philly... An angry guy who thought he knew everything and then I went on one of my two year streaks... famous we all were...

    Ok NTLA kind of broke out but it's a family move EDIT went with it I'm not prepraed yet to declare a winner tech wise here but I'm close. I've been tracking these names enough to know they are for real and I have let them get away a bit... Folks, whatever you do-- keep scraps of paper around. That's what I do I scribble quotes on buy rated ideas and shove them in every crack of this apartment and then one day I look and see a particular set of ideas has worked and I say hummm. Wish I had bought something that day. That's what has happened with EDIT & NTLA. It's nerve wracking.


    lets get Dutch!!!-- People who rely on my stock picking hate when I say this but Getting Dutch is an important step in assembling these watch lists-- You got to get excited about something!!! Even when all the market is an utter bore.-- WHERE ARE ALL THE IDEAS-? WHY ONLY ME!

    Lets do this--stoney
  9. I can't guarantee it but I would guess that URGN will begin it's move today. There was a bit of what I see as good news yesterday a new hire for I think COO -one of these under positions. CFO was leaving but (don't panic) the COO was taking over and a new guy was being hired... I'll dig up the press release. It's all benign stuff except the part that the new hire comes from KITE and was there for that whole roll out and eventual gobble up by a larger player that made everyone I know a good amount of money. Enough to move a stock? Normally I'd say no but I've been hunchy about this urinary name. Sometimes you look at a stock and you see in your mind a price and in this case that price is like $95.

    Ok so you followed the advice of a stoned guy who sees in his mind a stock price for a certain stock. I know you can all see your accountants saying that to you at tax time but it will be because of the fabulous gain!!!! If we move today at get to $62 I'll feel like I've done it. landed on the correct name for a 1 year run... That's the goal. Holding for a year.-stoney
    vanzandt likes this.
  10. vanzandt


    Hey Stoney! Yeah man...the Dutchman is smokin'! Up 8% two days in a row and the volume.... ooooh the volume.
    Tim Seymore on Fast-Money did a whole bit on weed stocks last night. He's crazy bullish. Loves CGC.
    And it gets even better... Trumpy is slamming Sessions pretty much daily now. Unless this is some kind of ploy to divert the media.... if that man has any pride at all... he's gonna walk. And with him walking, man the sky's the limit on legalization Stateside.

    Re ideas... I'll work on a few. I like shorting. Check out @elitenapper ... he always has some good ideas. have a great day Stoney...I'll ttyl.... gotta ride the bull... before it keels over dead as f.

    Edit : For those that don't know... "EDIT" in the above post is the symbol for Editas Medicine... a biotech leading the way in CRISPR (genome editing).
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2018
    #10     Jun 6, 2018