For me the point about Bitcoin is that it may go up or down , but it can't replicate the same sort of exponential price rise of the past , mainly because its capitalisation would then be greater than all the money in the world , whichever way you look at it , Bitcoins best is in the past.
I found this quote that is perfect for cryptos (also for stocks in general): "One of my economics professors at university told me long ago that the value of a theory comes solely in its predictive power; if you can make accurate predictions using the theoretical guidelines, then it is “true” for practical purposes."
Bitcoin cannot go up with the same amount of percentage returns it has done in the past, but it can go up 5x from here which I don't think Apple or Amazon can do at this stage of their cycle. Moreover, if we experience another financial system crisis due to the massive printing that has been done by central banks around the world, bitcoin may be the uncorrelated asset that is needed for hedge against the risk as all other assets rely on money flow except bitcoin as it can function as money. Why do you think there's so much interest now from hedge funds and institutional investors? They are not looking for 10,000% returns, they are looking for ways to protect themselves.
My own view was the rising price was what was attracting investors, without it I suspect it will struggle. I do get the feeling a lot of people who bought in don't want to change their minds , I was in favour of buying a year or so ago , simple because it was going up so fast , I pointed out it could easily go up 3 or 400 hundred percent like it had done already and that it could only go down 100%, but 5x from here would mean it would be surpassing gold in mkt capitalisation , and the price has also faltered, for me the risks have now reversed , it's not impossible it could be almost worthless , maybe in a year or two , for all sorts of reasons , a better competitor that is easier to use would be my biggest concern, then regulation.
Bitcoin is at $200B (much less, really, as there are so many lost private keys). Gold is $9 Trillion (from the Fundstrat slide). I don't think you watched that video presentation by Thomas Lee, did you?
Crypto-currencies is the single most revolutionary innovation since Gutenberg's printing press. I take immense comfort in the fact that the overall sentiment here on Elitetrader is so staunchly bearish.
All three of these claims are false in my opinion. Bank accounts can be hacked. Credit Card fraud is a major issue for both retailers and other financial institutions. Fiat currency may be safer for the average person but if you practice appropriate cold storage there is very little chance your cryptocurrency will be stolen and there is no risk of a third party undoing the transaction. Some cryptocurrencies have high transaction fees, some are close to free. I believe that in the next few years as we begin to see more mass adoption that people will flock toward the currencies with low transaction fees. Conducting a transaction is much easier than the most common method of transfering money (ACH). I bought .5 ETH this morning and it was instantaneous and I was able to transfer to a different wallet in around 5 minutes with little in fees. How would one go about transferring fiat in 10 minutes or less with little to no fees?
Look at past few days day range. Yesterday XBT bitcoin broke the record by having the smallest day range of <400 since it was launched. What does it mean? perhaps market is going up the mountain with very feeble legs. market appears to be consolidating and moving in small range? I am still paying $5 / mth for the CFE data fee. Waiting very patiently to short xbt to perhaps 2 or 3 digit level. hope my data subscription fee pays off