Two Agressive Earnings Plays Tonight!

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by stonedinvestor, Apr 23, 2008.

  1. I'm 99% sure I've got two nice charts, two good companies, that are way down reporting tonight. One or both may be a great trade. The names are
    FFIV & NIHD.... I haven't seen great reward from the market yet for any companies earnings except maybe Google, so I'm not as inclined as usual to get ahead of these numbers... still when opportunity knocks sometimes you have to put your pants on and answer the door... I'll be revving on these two names today as well as Chinese security play CSR which has a lot of insider buying. The CEO's buying is reason enough but the institutional increase has been huge. JRJC also is at the tip of my stock gun (again).

    To Be Continued..... ~ stoney

    Insider Purchases - Last 6 Months
    Shares Trans
    Purchases 310,600 4
    Sales N/A 0
    Net Shares Purchased
    (Sold) 310,600 4
    Total Insider Shares Held 15.56M N/A
    % Net Shares Purchased
    (Sold) 2.0% N/A
    Net Institutional Purchases - Prior Qtr to Latest Qtr
    Net Shares Purchased (Sold) 3,879,910
    % Change in Institutional Shares Held 21.1%
    Data provided by Thomson Financial

    Date Insider Shares Type Transaction Value*
    16-Apr-08 TU GUO SHEN
    Officer 15,000 Indirect Purchase at $19.36 per share. $290,400
    21-Mar-08 TU GUO SHEN
    Officer 109,600 Indirect Purchase at $13.99 per share. $1,533,304
    20-Mar-08 TU GUO SHEN
    Officer 7,500 Direct Purchase at $14.04 per share. $105,300
    18-Mar-08 TU GUO SHEN
    Officer 143,500 Direct Purchase at $13.91 per share. $1,996,085
  2. The market is so funny. And frustrating. I finish up an hour's worth of research on NIHD and everything is looking good until I read a Schaefer piece on everyone being too optimistic on the shares and that being dangerous and it's true... Analysts have backed this co all the way down.. they can only go neg from here. And a bit of insider buying looked great and until you read the fine print that the shares were given over $20 below the actual price... Still it's a big number sort of company and I look for a quick trade still, though I'm not as positive as I was earlier... on the fence. And oddly the outlook for FFIV is painted much more bleakly by analysts- a heavy dependence on the financial sector evidently being the death kneel... now this co is run by a smart operator formally of Intel of MSFT I can't remember but here we have the investing opposite set up for an earnings call.. a former highflyer with every one neg... they can only turn positive or reiterate their negative stance... My instinct of course is to grab the perceived more " positive " play... but where are real returns made in the market? When you surprise people. To be continued.... ~ stoney
  3. re FFIV-
    Technical Analysis story about FFIV
    BULLISH CASE: In short-term uptrend. On better than expected news/outlook the stock could trade to the upper limit of the short-term bullish price channel at $22.61. On a bullish breakout above the price channel the following resistance levels would become upside objectives: $23.38, $23.75, $24.13, $24.51, $24.90, $25.38, $25.89, $26.32, $26.99, $27.57, $28.00. BEARISH CASE: In downtrend on all but the shortest time frames. On worse than expected news/outlook the stock could trade to the lower limit of the price channel at $20.86. On a bearish breakdown below the price channel the following support levels would become downside objectives: $20.52, $20.13, $19.77, $19.43, $19.13, $18.75, $18.24, $17.80, $17.41, $17.13. NOTE: Moderate short-base (4.1 days to cover with a larger 10.3% of the float short). Traders are positioned for negative news. Reactions on a surprise, especially a positive one, have a higher probability of being extreme in duration and price. High gap risk.

    HIGH GAP RISK! HGR Wow that's my new lifestyle I love that!

    Recommendations story about FFIV from Kaufman Brothers
    Kaufman Bros. is concerned about F5's exposure to the financial services vertical and the effects of the economic slowdown on the company. As a result, the firm predicts the company will report revenue of $154M for its Q2, versus the consensus estimate of $156M. However, the firm maintained their Buy rating.

    April 22, 2008
    13:43 EDT FFIV

    F5 Networks (FFIV) is expected to report Q2 earnings Wednesday with a conference call scheduled for 4:30 pm EST. The consensus estimate is 21c for EPS and $156.23M for revenue, according to First Call. After Q1 results, management gave Q2 guidance of non-GAAP EPS 33c to 34c on $158M to $160M in revenues. During the quarter, many analysts trimmed estimates and target prices due to the weakening financial service industry, which is one of the company's verticals. Estimates were also trimmed on F5 as a challenging spending environment may limit F5's execution in 2H08, according to Oppenheimer.
    According to RBC Dain, F5's stock may have already factored in a not too great of a quarter. Piper believes F5 will report March quarter results toward the low end of guidance but feels the valuation is extremely compelling at current levels.
    Bank of America is looking for cautious commentary regarding the June quarter. The firm said that given the increased concern among enterprise decision makers, particularly in North America, they expect F5 to offer cautious commentary, suggesting modest sequential growth for the June quarter. However, resilient international demand, the ramp of Montreal and new hardware for the low end of the 4-7 market should enable F5 to guide for sequential improvement during the period, according to Bank of America. Key issues for the call: Investors will remain focused on the macro and the growth outlook for the company's core business; details on Acopia integration and sales trends given the exposure of this business to financial services. Additional attention will center on the success of Montreal, the timing of new BIG-IP hardware, and the deployment of cash.

    from Piper Jaffray
    Piper believes FFIV will report March quarter results toward the low end of guidance but feels the valuation is "extremely compelling" at current levels. Shares remain Buy rated.

    April 21, 2008
    08:56 EDT FFIV
    F5 Networks-FFIV target raised to $27 from $25, reit Buy@THNK
    ThinkPanmure WHOEVER THE HELL THAT IS! believes that the company's market leadership and several positive trends have left the company well-positioned to experience faster growth when the economy recovers. The firm believes that risks to the company's Q2 results are already reflected in the stock price.

    Wow the full spectrum folks? What you think... is F5 worth the earnings risk? ~ stoney
  4. Well folks I'm about to do it with F5 and in a big way, I just feel like rolling the dice, isn't anyone going to stop or encourage me? This is a highly known name...~ stoney
  5. Well I'm so nervous I could throw up and that's after nine hours in this chair. The wife and kid hate me...

    I'll be asking a lot of questions on the conference call please join us! I hope and pray it goes well.

    Is there anyone else in this with me. I feel so very alone. Where is everyone??~ stoney

    Please Join Us for the F5 Networks Conference Call
    BusinessWire - April 22, 2008 11:43 AM ET

    Related Quotes
    Symbol Last Chg
    FFIV Trade 22.31 +1.00
    Real time quote.

    F5 Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:FFIV):

    TOPIC: F5 Second Quarter Financial Results

    DATE: Wednesday, April 23, 2008

    TIME: 1:30 PM Pacific (4:30 PM Eastern)

    DIAL IN NUMBER: 800-779-1698 (US & Canada)
    +1-210-234-0002 (International)

    CALL LEADER: John McAdam

  6. YES!

    Technology : Computer Networks

    Extended Hours: Last 24.17 Change +1.98 (+8.92%) Bid 24.21 x100 Ask 24.40


    " Hi guys. First off great great job. Do you feel you are well positioned now to make me a lot of money from here or should I sell immediately tomorrow? And if I could follow that up with I didn't have lunch and I'm all twisted inside but SWEET MOTHER OF MANA WHAT A WEEK FOR STONEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Sorry guys, next question. "

    (If only I had hit CHNR today missed by ten cents!) ~ thanks for playing along. Hope all the hard work and guts didn't scare you. Peace.
  7. Ok here comes NIHD... I did not buy this one... but it looks pretty darn good...

    NII Holdings 1Q profit jumps as subscriber base grows
    Thursday April 24, 7:34 am ET
    NII Holdings posts higher-than-expected 1st-quarter profit, sales as subscriber base grows

    RESTON, Va. (AP) -- NII Holdings Inc., a wireless service provider to Latin American businesses, said Thursday its first-quarter profit and sales grew, surpassing Wall Street expectations as the company expanded its subscriber base.
    NII earned $113.6 million, or 65 cents per share, up 35 percent from $84.2 million, or 47 cents per share, in the same period a year earlier.

    Revenue jumped 39 percent to $993.2 million from $714.7 million.

    Analysts, on average, expected profit of 61 cents per share on sales of $972.6 million.

    NII added 321,700 net subscribers during the quarter, up 35 percent from the year-ago quarter. It now has more than 5 million subscribers. Average revenue per unit, a closely watched industry figure, was flat with the year-ago quarter at $58.

    The company said demand for its wireless service continues to grow and it has expanded its coverage area, mainly in Brazil and Mexico.....

    I guess it's up to the street to decide now whether that $58 per unit is enough, I think it is because it is factoring in 321K new subscribers X that amount but lets see how NIHD opens there may still be a trade here for us. ~ stoney
  8. Nice pop for NIHD today! This is a tough one to call longer term. I'm normally not a fan of companies with debt, and they have quite a bit. Even still though, it's significantly less than the industry average. Also, they seem to be doing an excellent job managing their cash flow and their return on assets. So, they do appear to be doing a good job utilizing their debt effectively.

    I don't know, perhaps buying on a dip could turn out to be a good longer term play with them.
  9. Well folks it's been a week and I'm wrapping up one of these trades NIHD. Let this post be a learning lesson for as you read it you will see how I outsmarted myself and relied on outside research (Schaefer) to frame my views... which as an astute poster pointed out is some sort of disease Cognitive something... I wanted to buy the tech stock hard I wanted to be talked down on the boring phone play.... well you know the rest after a one day surge of good amount 8%, FFIV has stalled out and what did the big Tel do? Well check the chart a breathless day after day climb up which when you are only holding a little is no fun at all. I hope many of you ET'ers did better, I gather from your PM's that you have. Always glad to help around earnings time. And so it is with some amount of spite that we sell NIHD today and hold onto FFIV. ~ stoney
  10. good call stoney go get some widow or haze and celjahbrate
    #10     May 2, 2008