Twitter Can Predict the Stock Market

Discussion in 'Trading' started by ivanbaj, Oct 19, 2010.

  1. I'd like to take the other side of any model that they try to offer trading off of an twitter algo to trade any market. Twitter is subjective, hard to infer consistent data worth trading from. What a bunch of useless assholes.
  2. Imagine that in a not too distant future we will have mood reports.

    Today the collective mood is low. There is 70% chance for the stock market to finish down and for your wife to come home late.

    It will help, don't you think?
  3. Lagging indicator, considering most people have an rational or irrational reaction to said event and then post their response. So i vote no.
  4. Ya they are starting a new service... Stocktwit. ..

    And they guarantee that for every tit for tat, theres a bid and ask.
  5. Tweet contents

    Pointless babble — 41%
    Conversational — 38%
    Pass-along value — 9%
    Self-promotion — 6%
    Spam — 4%
    News — 4%
  6. twitter is a soap opera for the internet.
  7. Bigaeon


    Anything with a limited sample can show a trend. Its like they say, 75% of all statistics are made up.
  8. The algorithm did pretty well using stock market data alone, predicting the shape of the stock market with 73.3 percent accuracy. But it did even better when the emotional information was added, reaching up to 86.7 percent accuracy.

    Doesn't everyone try to correlate everything with the Dow?

    Accuracy improves if we add just a teensy weensy bit of something else in this case adjectives aka emotions.

    Using twitter is just one more form of a thousand other correlations.

    They mention "emotions' using 72 adjectives. Instead of words in this case "adjectives" and instead we assign a number or better yet tweek the adjective with a numerical value.

    “friendly,” = 1

    “peeved,” = 2

    “active,” =3

    “on edge” = 4

    “panicky,” = 5

    so on and so forth.

    At this moment in time, suppose the system works. What do we know for sure? It works until is doesn't.

    Just sayin..

    Probably since the article went to press, we have researchers correlating Twitter with gold, oil, etc.

    suppose the entire thing is a PR stunt. NY has the highest % of active twitter users.

    (In other news the vampire squid was behind the whole thing lmao):D
    #10     Oct 20, 2010