Had the 22nd and 23rd off for Thanksgiving. Disappointed with myself last Friday. Didn't make any trades, as I was too distracted. After I miss a good trade, I don't like the feeling of forcing a trade. That's a losers behavior. I'm learning that looking at other crap when you are trading is a big problem. For some reason I was concerned with looking at YM, NQ and ES instead of just one, searching for the best trade. I believe you don't need much more than an edge with 1 contract to rake in money. Several full time traders have proven it that I know of. Several signals were given that met my objective filter criteria and I could have held on for near +/- 10 ES points last Friday. Another thing is simplification. For some reason I keep finding myself trying to complicate trading, when I know simple tactics work almost too good to believe. For example, multiple time frames: Every time I look at multiple time frames, they work well sometimes, and other times they are too quick (lower time frames) or too slow (higher time frames) at capturing what I'm looking for. I'm sure with screen time I will find what is comfortable.
Could have traded today... just sat and stared at the screen as the best trades pass me by. I am still getting over psychological stings of monetary loss from the previous year.
Took 2 trades according to the plan. Very few of the signals I got today were clean as they should be. Too many were right along the EMA or in price swings that were neutral. The price action after the trade was entered caused me to bail on both of them. They both met the criteria I have. I shouldn't have even taken the NQ trade, it was around 14:21... so late in the day and there is little time left. It's sitting out on trading days like yesterday that are preventing me from being profitable. Every great trader I know of makes or loses a little most of the time, and every so often, makes a lot.
On top of having a pounding headache, my broker was having issues this morning. I really shouldn't have traded. There is a hole between 4 am and about 9 am in my brokers data on the instrument I was watching (RLM). Took the worst possible signal out of the 3 that met criteria. For some god damn reason, I went long at the yellow bar. How I still manage to fuck up days like today is incredible... -$290 on one trade.
Unless you are Jack Hershey, losing is part of winning. It looks like it did go in your favor for a few bars....... maybe you could just get out if the trade does not take off immediately, like the Phantom of the Pits. Perhaps you could study your winning trades and examine the flight path. Most jets take off and keep going up; how about your past winners?
That looks like a fine signal to me. I wouldn't have held it too long though; when it tried to bounce off the MA's, I'd look to limit my loss if it broke back down through them. Now, if this was a trade in the direction of an established trend, I might not be so quick to bail out, but after a move down like the one leading into that setup, this is counte-trend and price needs to act like the 1-2-3 reversal traders are excited, or I'm outta there.
The main problem I see with this trade is both the long term trend indicators were in short mode. Therefore I could say this was against the way I like to trade, or a counter trend trade. The main purpose of the yellow bar is early entry, or a reversal signal. But of the four things I'm looking for in a setup, this met half of them. Though it's a planned trade, it's likely lower probability than if I had all 4 things I look for (the first magenta bar met all 4 criteria). The trapping of other trades is early in a trend is the best trade that I can see, and in this case it's a mediocre at best. I did bail quickly as the price dropped sharply a few bars after entry. This entry method requires more room than that. Using a small stops/bailing quickly does not increase your win percentage with this method. Like I said the main thing was I wasn't trading with the trend.
What a boring day... Didn't see anything I liked. If the market moves too far in the direction of a trade signal I don't take it. I feel like I'm good at recognizing range trading. Even on smaller time frames there wasn't much opportunity for my type of trading on RLM/ES. No trades today. Was watching RLM and I should have been watching NQ. No way to know which instrument is going to suck, and I have missed trades flipping through charts before.
First yellow bar after the open was the best trade. I watched it develop but didn't pull the trigger. I hesitated because the last yellow signal bar I took was a loser. However, this yellow bar formed a much stronger pattern than the previous one and met more criteria. The 1st cyan bar would have been ignored, as it didn't trap many sellers, and the market had rallied a relatively large amount overnight. Therefore, the best opportunity is short. Part of the reason I hesitated is because I need to refine my exit rules. I'm considering adding scratch rules for getting trapped after entering my trade, and I haven't figured out exactly where I should take a profit. All I know is these signals have an edge, so it shouldn't be that hard to make good money with them. Lack of experience/screen time is what I feel is lacking. I can't trade everyday, but I should have more week days off in the near future, because we are starting self scheduling, and I doubt many will want to work weekends like myself. Going to a retirement ceremony but also there is no need to take any more trades. No reason that I couldn't have made money this week other than poor execution/lack of screen time. Wed/Fri should have easily been winning days, with Thur like it turned out, either small loss, break even or flat.