First trade I've placed in a while. I'm still in the process of revising my edge. Good: With the trend entry, 1st pullback Bad: Opened 5 contracts which was a mistake, so I exited quickly. No more trades today.
I have been working most week days these last few weeks and not placing trades. Of course I continue to study, and find some way to objectify the market. Simple things such as support and resistance and moving averages are just tools that help you see price action a little more clearly. Once I started objectify price action, I can see the same patterns evolving over time, but of course the time/magnitude is always changing. That's what I think makes trading difficult. I have decided to change a few things. Trade the bare minimum until I have a large enough sample size to determine that I truly have an edge. One of the big traps I've fallen into recently is seemingly unrealistic back testing. I think I got into trouble because hindsight is always clearer. If there is any one part of your system that relies on judgement, then you are going to have a tough time reproducing your back test results. Until I have proven my edge in real time, I will trade 1 contract with as little leverage as possible. I'm going to stick to NQ or TF.
Another theme I need to emphasize with my own trading that I have noticed that those traders that are consistently profitable do is trade by exception. That usually means they do a couple if not 1 trade per day. Yet another one of those trading paradoxes; less is more.
One and done, no point in risking any more today. Bought at the point where I see highest point of success (above sellers). I had multiple time frame confirmation and trend up.
Been a while since I posted a chart. This system has been released to the public by a top fund manager - so no need to really go over it. I created a custom indicator to define the signals exactly. However, you would give back much of what you make if you don't use additional judgement, described in the image. I recently feel like I started to complicate things a little more than necessary. Multiple time frames can come in handy, along with confirmation signals, but they aren't necessary to make money. Therefore I canned all of that and went back to using one time frame. Using an indicator with several different inputs somewhat accounts for using more than one time frame.
2 and done. So far we are in a range, shouldn't have taken either of these. Max of 2 trades per day. Being a bad trader so I'll sit out until tomorrow.
As I have seen for many weeks now, a good trader could be done in the first few hours or so for the day. This is why I'm getting in the habit of stopping early. Many of the successful traders I've read about trade by exception, and by limiting your time trading the market, you do that. I also don't like watching the market all day. The first few longs were the one's that I took today. These signals should have been avoided because I was buying at the top a range. After these two trades, I stopped, because that's what is in my plan right now. The short signals that appeared around 0900 would have made me a winner today. I took the signal labeled First X around 856 and exited at market around 0907, when that short signal appeared. I have observed that usually if you are wrong the first signal, a reversal signal appears soon after, and it is usually right. Shouldn't have traded the ES at all. The Dow has the lowest volatility and leverage of all 4 index minis which is what I need to trade right now.
Few thoughts recently... Nightly study continues to remind me that a rock solid trading plan could pour money into my account in the first few hours trading only taking 1-2 trades (the second is a reversal). I've hard coded some signals into my trading platform that require a visual filter as well. I feel there is need for interpretation in trading. 100% mechanical doesn't make any sense. I remember lescor talking about having trade setups flagged, but reviewed visually before actually taking them. What makes a trader a loser? No plan, logical stops, cutting winners, and holding on to losers. So logically, invert all these things, you might become a winner. YM feels sleepy today. I think I'm going to switch to NQ and TF. They usually move more. I am disciplined in ever other aspect of my life so it makes no damn sense that I can't be a real disciplined business man. I'm happy with these results, because should I actually prove that I have learned how to make money, this can be nearly any multiple of $140. One of my favorite analogies is how the market is like a whore, out to fuck everybody. My idea is to trade with trapped traders, but don't get trapped myself. One must be able to objectify this point in one way or another, and be paying attention because you can become trapped in your open position. I recognize, I could always just be imagining things and be leaving something out. Been back testing the same method since July of this year. I have a statistical edge that has existed seemingly since trading began. Just need the screen time.
Well, at this point, I left a possible 10+ ES points on the table. SIT ON YOUR HANDS WHEN YOU HAVE A WINNER! Not likely I will open any more positions, because it wouldn't have been necessary, had I sat on my hands. Sold near the bottom, but reversed quickly, like I have seen and planned for for days.