So, of course I've slown way down to take some time to really etch out a winning game plan. I wish I had done this in the beginning, but of course with that thought of never truely knowing the outcome of a trade, I thought that if I took trades that are low risk I couldn't go wrong. Turns out that doesn't work so well. I've come up with a few patterns to trade exclusively. I need to do a little more work with them though. I found at least 3 patterns that have a pretty good reliability for scalps (around 70%). However, I must find ideal stop and profit targets. I absolutely hate the fact that all paterns are subjective and feel that the word is really a misnomer because of the price & time inconsistency. For starters, I might just end up focusing on one of them till I have a good enough sample for myself. The most recent lessons obtained via experience are: - It seems one must have some sort of order or pattern to your entry. Stating this almost feels delusional because I find that because time and price vary in magintude, a true repeatable pattern would show up in the identical time and magnitude. However, if you stuck to this you would probably trade 1 time per year. I have trouble seeing how to best accomplish this. It seems you must ignore time/magnitude in order to determine proper setups. (This point is made by Al Brooks and I have experienced now first hand - taking trade that you are not sure the outcome will more than take away all of your profits). Anyone care to share light on this? I have never seen anything written about this particular subject. - Of utmost importance is knowing when to fold, or reverse. Low risk is to me the most fundamental aspect. Some of my recent trades were too risky. I've promised myself at this point to trade only 1 contract of 1 instrument at a time until I consistently show positive results. There is no reason to bet like I have until I can prove I can make money. Trades I would have taken but did not last night would have net a small amount. Around $100 on NQ. @ ~ $11k (-54%)
You know trading for 5 points is a losers game? Get a robust system developed before you place more trades.
@ ~ $11k (-54%) Long 1 contract NG Based of a specific price pattern with high reliability. Going to use 1 hour and 4 hour charts for these trades.
Do you have a fundamental reason to be long nat gas? You know the trades thus far appear as guesses, and this one probably is, too.
Sike, it wasn't high probability apparently. -$200 last night. Got to keep working at it. I can't read the market correctly to save my life. Just have to keep working at it... I think I'm gonna stop trading real money till I can papertrade well again. @ ~ $11k (-54%)
you are giving back what you win . I try to never give back the bulk of the gains I made. A few losses and I play defense. I also play defense after an exceptional winning streak. 25 K is stretching it with commodity futures, too much leverage. You have no room for error when you start, only a lucky streak can take your account to the proper size.
No point in trading at this time. Obviously you need more than risk management and a long term edge with a small account. I've been burned by what I believe as an anomaly. I know what I need to do, I just have to do it. Not going to post here for a while.
I'm sorry but I'm really confused by this statement, as it seems an honest one. If anything, I controlled my losses very well. What is killing me is the degree of winning trades I've had. Every single winner I had in the last few months only showed profit for a day or two, and was stopped out eventually, for either a small loss or small gain. I've tried every type of stop - Volatility based, price bar based, etc. It almost always is hit. Trades often go in the initial direction that I want, but will come back and hit my stop loss eventually. I had a few large winners that covered my small losers in the first month or so... this is the foundation of trading I'm sure, as most traders winning percent is not much higher than 50%. Obviously I've suffered an anomaly, as I know my big edge is correct near 95% of the time, but because of the timing of my entries, it of course has not demonstrated that. Also, if I were entering at RANDOM, I should have more winners than I have had recently, especially over this period of time! I have been trying to catch large moves as my big 'edge' called them. However, this is proving to be quite more challenging that it was in my back test(s)... When I find something that has high probability when I back test it, it almost never turns out the same way in a forward test. As I posted before a simple pattern that reoccurs has like 80% probability of at least offering a scalpers profit as long as the entry and exit rules are followed. Of course I do a few trades on it they are all losers!!! Regardless, I need to go back to paper trading. I think the problem is probability/edge, and the fact my account is small doesn't help...