someone said Emile from the programme was talking on this message board...was he? some comments reference him here...but i cant find the actual comments by emile. Can someone point to the correct person or thread? thankyou.
TZ - all trendfollowing systems are 100% technical, and plenty have made big money year in year out for the past couple of decades.
Well, trendfollowing itself hasn't changed much in the last 6 months, I can assure you! So maybe that might hold your interest for a bit longer. Also, if you think trendfollowing is not 100% technical you are actually confused as to what trendfollowing is. Jumping into a rising market because the "fundamentals" look good is absolutely NOT trendfollowing, it's amateur hour investing. Trendfollowers create a backtested positive expected return, ideally with low variance, across uncorrelated trending markets. Do you know what that means? It's 100% quantitative. There is no room for any kind of subjectivity. I didn't say all trendfollowers have made money consistently, just that a lot have. If you want to know which ones have and how much, thumb through a copy of Michael Covel's Trendfollowing. There is no point me simply duplicating what he's researched in this post. If you don't look at this book (or other good sources) I can only assume you have no interest in any evidence. And PLEASE don't talk about survivorship bias, because in order to prove that the survivors in TF are just lucky you will need to find a large sample of failures who began at roughly the same time as the successes. For example, Warren Buffet is one of the very few successes from a gigantic pool of long term buy and hold investors who want to outperform the market by buying "good" companies. He began in the 50s and since then roughly 10 million or so other people have tried exactly this. He and a tiny handful of others are the only ones we've heard about. Let's say, for the sake of argument, the trendfollowing industry began in the 1980s. Can you find even 20 - let alone hundreds - of eventual failures that started in the 80s to outweigh the 10 or so continuously sucessful funds that are still trading? Thought not.