Many months ago I have purchased the turtle system from an ad in "Stocks and Commodities", while I regret paying about a grand for something of a pamphlet. I found many of it's ideas interesting. I am thinking of moving my activities over to futures and it in longer term trend following system trading. Any of you (aside from mr tharp) follows the turtle trading. Interestingly I have signed an agreement ;-) never to divulge the system ;-) to anyone, but I suspect rtharp has the similar trading methods for stocks. Long term trend following systems work in a few commodities (not all) and I wonder if anyone here trades long term systems ???
Hi A I think I should mention what Jack Schwager noticed. The majority of good traders are now in the stock market. A lot of the Market Wizards who traded commodities have either moved to the stock market, gone bust (yep a few did) or had to drastically change systems. The problem with futures is it's usually a CTA trading against another CTA. Or a professinal aganist another professional it's a lot tougher. The companies that used to use the futures market to hedge now trade, so they don't take huge losing positions in the markets. (why should they? they know how the market for their product is). It's just something to think about. rtharp
Good point. I suspect that the markets for futures have added complexities while the turtle system can be use for any markets including equities. The Fed move however is settingh up some new trends in rates and currencies I find very hard to ignore. Betting these via the stock market is also very complicated.
andrasnm Is the turtle system worth buying? What is included? From your post I assume that it is only a printed manual. If that is the case than it sounds a little too expensive. thanks
just something else to think about-A Richard Dennis trained the turtles. He just closed his fund due to a huge drawdown. Now Richard Dennis is a incredible trader. I've been exposed to a lot of his strategies. The problem is market's move in cycles. He wasn't prepared/ or ready for a new cycle. Eventually the market will work for their type of trading and they will do quite well. The turtles kicked A$$ when you compare them to the indexes for the last few years.
The Turtle system is a money and position management system printed manual + CD (with some historical data)
The Turtle method is a derivative of Richard Donchian's breakout system. It trades on breakouts of 20 day high-lows, with a position-sizing system that's proprietary. They refer to the number of contracts as n or N. It makes money when traded across a big portfolio of markets, but has some drawdowns that would scare the hell out of any daytrader. You'll find a few places on the web that sell the system, as the original turtle's non-disclosure agreements ran out a few years ago. Russell Sands is one of them. He also runs a commodity fund that follows the method.
Gozer It's Richard Dennis ...who trained the turtles. Then there is also the system of turtle soup for choppy markets