Turning $7,000 into $1 Million in Less Than a Year: A High-Risk Trading Challenge

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Prexident, Dec 23, 2024.

  1. This is the EXACT kind of thread @SML has been waiting for!
     
    #11     Dec 23, 2024
  2. Bad_Badness

    Bad_Badness

    Listen carefully: The market has a say in the outcome, no matter how much "determination and grit". Manage the risk better for more certainty of a positive outcome.

    Based on the OP described, the risk of a roller coaster ride is high, and the probability of the goal, although possible, is small.

    Perhaps a roller coaster ride is the goal. A lot of people who try this, are into the glory of the ride and are not serious about hitting the stated goal.
     
    #12     Dec 23, 2024
    sridhga and Occam like this.
  3. What is your average target? For example, are you targeting 1% returns, 3% returns, etc. Curious your risk of ruin.
     
    #13     Dec 23, 2024
  4. Businessman

    Businessman

    Based on the opening post it looks like the OP is going for approx 25 point profit target in ES with a 12.5 point stop loss (or numbers in that ballpark).

    Based on 60 trades per year and 67% win rate, the expected Sharpe ratio is over 5!

    If the OP can pull off those numbers (2:1 67% 60 trades per year with full Kelly), the probability of hitting the 1M target within 12 months is over 95% and the risk of ruin (eg. going to below a $700 balance) are below 5%.

    But like I said pulling off a 2:1 RR and 67% win rate over 60 trades would make the OP one of the best ES traders in the world.
     
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2024
    #14     Dec 23, 2024
    flash crash and Actuarial_Fun like this.
  5. schizo

    schizo

    You must be an SML clone. You and him certainly sound alike, except you have bigger balls by all appearances. SML is a pussy by comparison.
     
    #15     Dec 23, 2024
    HawaiianIceberg likes this.
  6. traider

    traider

    Why not turn 700000 into 100 Million?
     
    #16     Dec 23, 2024
    sridhga likes this.
  7. Businessman

    Businessman

    Even the mighty ES is going to struggle with his day trading strategy to scale to $10million risk per trade. I mean he would have to accumulate big positions like well over 10,000 contracts and there is not always enough time if the market is moving..

    Swing trading you might have time to build up a position of that size, but not always when day trading and especially not if trading a momentum intra day strategy.
     
    Last edited: Dec 24, 2024
    #17     Dec 23, 2024
    TrailerParkTed and Lou Friedman like this.
  8. Handle123

    Handle123

    If your daily goal per lot is $300, 15 contracts of ES times 50 weeks, million plus. Trading day session and when Eurex opens have plenty of opportunities.
     
    #18     Dec 24, 2024
  9. Coin Flip

    Coin Flip

    Why not start out risking 50% per trade but scale the % down as your account grows?

    Takes longer but massively reduces your $ variance.

    Also I assume you are doing this YOLO strategy with only a tiny portion of your net worth, which takes the pressure off you.
     
    #19     Dec 24, 2024
  10. odlareg

    odlareg

    The pressure will rise with the growth of the money invested, as it will become a large portion of his net worth.
     
    #20     Dec 24, 2024
    sridhga likes this.