Turkish Lira (TRY)

ZH article about upcoming election:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...surge-after-erdogan-announces-early-elections

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Turkey government bonds:
https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/european-government-bonds

At the time of writing,
2Y at 13.55%
10Y at 12.30%

so significant inversion of 156 bps.

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Population is estimated at 80,810,525 in 2017
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkey
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population

Economy of Turkey
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Turkey

GDP per capita $28,346 (PPP)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita
Turkey is 53rd

GDP per capita $11,114 (nominal)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita
Turkey is 63rd

List of countries by GDP (nominal)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

List of countries by GDP (PPP)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

Turkey is much higher on the absolute (not per capita) measures, due to its high population of 80 million. 19th highest on earth.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population

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So are you bullish or bearish?

 

Good nominal rates on the bonds, but what is their inflation rate?

 

10.23% according to
https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/inflation-cpi

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Thanks m22au yea i googled it and saw same. that high inflation brings down those nominal rates real fast!

 

For foreign investors that only matters if the currency depreciates... which it does I guess.

 

"Turkey Surprises With Bigger Rate Hike to Bolster Lira"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...gger-rate-hike-than-forecast-to-shore-up-lira

EUR/TRY appreciated to 4.9215 at 7.01am ET, but by 7.35am it had depreciated to 5.0115.

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Shorting the Lira is a smart move. Kills you on the carry, but long term this currency can't go anywhere but down.

 

So nett it's even in the long term?