6.15!!! Turkey is crashing, they are gonna Reneg Sovereign Debt, out of US Dollars they aren't defending there currency and seem unable too... Watch out folks, if they reneg, it's the start of 2019 crisis
Currency crisis looms. Next target for interest rate is 30%, though idk who will be able to lend them since capital flows are limited.
IMF is the only one to bail them out... But it will come with conditions on not buying Russian S400 among other conditions to which Ergodan will never accept, he is already sending military in Russia to learn how to use them it got reported. They will suffer same fate as Argentina, gas prices literally doubled in Turkey, Inflation is running out of control due to currency collapse, killing consuming GDP even more, they are in a death spiral. They will reneg on massive US Issued debt at 100 %... As long as Erdogan is in office, they will keep crumbling but he won't leave on his own, they will need to oust/kill him. Once he gets ousted, blast Calls on TUR ETF... When he gets ousted tho, that could be years. With severe crisis awaiting them, who knows tho. Very very interesting developments happening in World Markets at the moment
6.22!!!! Turkish CB stepped in and barely did anything, they are out of Foreign Reserves... Citizens are fleeing the Lira, they aren't making past June 2019, massive debt default wave coming
This is it for Turkey, default wave coming up... They have reached the last line of defense, Turkey's Central Bank might default later this year at this rate. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...m-central-bank-reserves-sources-idUSKCN1SJ0T4 ANKARA (Reuters) - Turkey’s Treasury ministry is working on legislation to transfer the central bank’s 40 billion lira ($6.6 billion) in legal reserves to the government’s budget to shore it up, three economic officials told Reuters. The budget deficit is deeper than expected, said the sources, who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. It was unclear when or whether the draft law would reach parliament, though one of the sources said it would happen “soon”. The “legal reserves” are what the central bank sets aside from profits by law to be used in extraordinary circumstances. At end-2018, they stood at 27.6 billion lira, according to the bank’s balance sheet data. A second source with knowledge of the matter said last year’s “legal reserves” combined with this year’s amounted to the 40-billion lira figure, which was cited by all three people who spoke to Reuters. Despite the January boost from central bank profits, Turkey’s budget recorded a 36.2 billion lira deficit in the first quarter of 2019, Treasury and Finance Ministry data show. The deficit is expected to reach 80.6 billion lira by year-end.
"Turkish Lira Surges After Central Bank Cuts Rates More Than Expected" https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/turkish-lira-surges-after-central-bank-cuts-rates-more-expected Thu, 09/12/2019 - 07:19 ...
Their ex Central Bank chief says inflation returns to single digit levels, I think it's not a good sign for carry traders
Turkey Sanctions President Trump froze trade talks with Turkey and announced a 50% tariff on the country's steel exports. The result? The Turkish lira strengthened against the dollar. Analysts say the tariff threats are just "window dressing" designed to appease a Congress that's furious about Turkey's invasion of Kurdish territory in northern Syria, after Trump ordered an abrupt U.S. withdrawal. CNBC
I'm a bit late in noticing this, but TRY has done poorly this year. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...s-trading-in-distress-defy-erdogan-s-optimism https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...de-economic-pain-won-t-cost-traders-any-sleep https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ded-by-moody-s-as-buffers-slide-risks-pile-up https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...shorts-eurozone-debt-on-turkish-fallout-wager .