Tuesday Morning.......Whats next...

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Gold_Ric, Sep 30, 2002.

  1. Gold_Ric


    Off the AM We have ISM Index #'s coming at 10 am est

    We basically sold off on Weak manufacturing mid-day. Wal Mart causing some session selling overall.

    I Look for Swing Short on CTSH off 57.00 ranges, This toppy range player can bounce and its a Thin player at best. Dont be afraid of that 58.00.

    CAT, keep an eye on that with earnings ahead Oct 16 th.

    EBAY we took short today off 56.00, we held as swing into the close. Nice sinkhole

    QLGC goes on Dump list as well, with hidden support at the 25.80 sticky range support. I am looking for broader based dump. Well see in the am if that support gets taken out.

    We shall see.......
  2. It appears we are in a downward trending market right now. ES broke 800 earlier today. This thing is going to either bleed slowly with a few light-hearted rallies, or we're soon approaching the "black day."

    I've got this funny feeling that this market is going to snap at any time.
  3. Gold_Ric


    I like ya thoughts Ap, Sure seems a bit weak. Buyers just leary as can be.
  4. machine


    Shorted MMM this morning @111.83. I'll try to hold it for a while. Dangerous here but promising.
    Long CEF @4.30
    Still short MO @46.50
  5. Gold_Ric


    Trail them stops...Looking good , just watch potential short term bounces, They get illusional at times. Nice nice nice


  6. Where is the potential energy stored for the market to "snap?" What is the catalyst? What is the/an event that will transform the potential into the kinetic?

    Simply said, where is the pool of capital that exists that is still so wrong at this late date into the bear that they will at some point in the future suddenly awaken and begin to sell with abandon?

    I have some ideas of what might cause a systematic dislocation. But I would like to hear yours, since you brought it up.

    Or better yet, why is "slow steady bleed" scenario more likely, if it is?

    Dr. Zhivodka
  7. machine


    But...of course...:)
  8. First, you have the beginning of a large group of people about to begin the retiring process. These people will want their money out of the markets because it won't do them any good to keep it in the markets.

    Secondly, you have a few good derivitate disasters just waiting to happen. It is only a matter of time before the 100+ trillion in derivitates causes a cascading effect throughout the banking industry, led first probably by none other than JPM.

    Third, it is only a matter of time before we either go to war or have another terrorist incident.

    Fourth, the markets are becoming more over-valued each day that future earnings projections get reduced.

    Fifth, you have the US government basically fudging numbers and keeping the markets propped up as much as possible. The economic data is not good. At some point, reality is going to have to hit home that this isn't a recession any longer, this is a full-fledged depression.

    Sixth, consumer debt and national debt continue to rise, while the surplus that was once projected has all but vanished. The banking industry has been refinancing houses during a period of LOWEST interest rates while having the HIGHEST over-valued housing market in quite some time.

    Just like the market, all these various "cycles" are soon going to "mesh" with each other and, like a butterfly flapping its wings in the middle of the ocean, chaos theory will show that this action will translate into a full-fledged market melt-down.

    Look at the century chart for DOW. The last 5 years have only begun to foreshadow the extent of damage that awaits these markets.
  9. Please continue Zhivodka on the systemic dislocations mentioned earlier.:cool:

  10. You list six items.

    But only one of those will come as any great surprise to anyone.

    Therefore you can eliminate 5 of the 6 items you list. And the sixth one is being priced in now.

    Markets are dislocated by surprises. You simply cannot surprise the market with the same information twice.

    Surprise me with some new information. You said "snap." Show me the snap is.

    Dr. Zhivodka
    #10     Sep 30, 2002