How best to profit from such an event? I mean personally What about shorting AAPL and AMD? Since then they cannot produce any chips anymore.
Unfortunately I think you're right.... And the US will only provide support fire if Chinese forces enter the territorial waters of neighboring nations. They will provide intelligence and scrambling tech but let Taiwan fight for its defense. A coalition of regional powers may intervene when and if Taiwan is able to hold communist China at bay for several weeks, something unexpected. But Ukraine has demonstrated that the unexpected can happen.
Just read somewhere in the news and maybe between the lines: the US is forcing (ie. blackmailing) South Korea not to sell computer chips ("memory chips") to China anymore. And China retaliates by limiting exports of lithium or so (needed in batteries)... The brainless US trade war against China continues... Shooting in own foot.... Popcorn!... And here's the news article, but in German only: "Handelskrieg um Halbleiter: USA erhöhen offenbar Druck auf Südkorea bei Chiplieferungen an China" English news (paywall): "US urges South Korea not to fill China shortfalls if Beijing bans Micron chips"
disagree. They don’t need Taiwan. They need jobs and refrigerators for their own internal population. they need natural resources (hence the economic investments in east Africa) and ports. They aren’t territorial expansionists as much as economic expansionists.
China does not need Taiwan but they've made a point to call it China since 1949 and the world acknowledged the 1 country, 2 systems arrangement. The US is the only country shaking the tree and challenging the status quo. Nearly half the population of Taiwan doesn't mind a peaceful Chinese take over, while the other half is ready to take the first flight out if they do. All that's left is a minority of hardcore military and politicians willing to fight it out, and few in Taiwan are foolish enough to believe the US will commit much to their defense. They clearly understand that the US primary interest is to sell them more weapons. With that said, the US and their allies on this matter have much to gain by setting up embargos like for Russia. It will give room for the West to redevelop their manufacturing base. China will lose much of its global trade with wealthy countries, but it isn't clear who may win this new Cold War. Clearly some secondary nations in South America, Africa and South East Asia will have to consider who to align with, China or the West. Brazil and South Africa are already letting it known they don't intend to follow the US narrative about bad China, good US. Will the world divide along political or economic lignes? That's the question my dear Watson.
ASML, Europe’s Most Valuable Tech Firm, Is at the Heart of the US-China Chip War The low-profile firm has become crucial to a half-trillion-dollar global industry. US President Joe Biden holds a semiconductor before signing an executive order at the White House in Washington, on Feb. 24, 2021.Photographer: Doug Mills/The New York Times By Cagan Koc, Ian King and Jillian Deutsch April 27, 2023 at 7:00 AM GMT+8
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/20/tsm...chip-factory-that-will-build-apple-chips.html American workers are now an oxymoron.
what do you mean by oxymoron? can you give me an example related to TSMC case? sorry i am located in Taiwan and my english is not that good. i need more examples to boost my understanding.
Simply that Americans don't know how to work anymore, because we don't have the skills set to operate a TSMC factory in the US. It's a bit unfair and it hides another reason we "can't" do it. The variable no one wants to talk about is labor cost. All these white coat workers working in chip factories in Asia are engineers paid manufacturing rates. The same in the US would be paid at least 3x more and not be competitive. This is a case both Dems and Republicans can agree on, that America has lost it competitive edge to Asia and the only way to regain it is to pressure factories back home. This will increase inflation as Made in the USA products will be significantly more expensive than those made in Asia and consequently will only be sold in the US. As an example, Tesla cars made in China are far cheaper to manufacture than those made in Texas or Germany even though they are the same cars. There is no competitive reason to have western based factories, except for the government intervention to skew the market to benefit local manufacturing. Nothing inherently wrong with that provided we all recognize that "free trade" was a US rallying cry until East Asia became truly competitive. China demonstrated that it's a national prerogative to skew the market to benefit home grown manufacturing.