Most of times, media (implied ) volatility overstates realized volatility you need to amplify emotion to sell something, whatever something is
It wouldn't work that way. The strategic parts of the factory would be dismantled and flown out by military cargo well in advance of an expected shipping blockade and no one will know. That will also be when "in the know" Taiwanese will start leaving the country for Australia, Canada and the US in regularly scheduled flights. From then on, China will trigger incrementally more forceful threats before launching their attack, 3-6 months after the discreet exodus of those whose lives will be threatened when China lands on Taiwan, I'm talking known anti communist political, business and social figures. It is in China's best interest to see them leave early rather than arrest thousands. Is it a foregone conclusion that China will invade Taïwan? No, everyone is still working out the ramifications of such a move in that part of the world. There are over half a dozen countries that will be affected by Chinese military movements and assertions. They may or may not defend their territorial water rights, including Japan. Is China prepared to enter in conflict with all of them to assert their big power dominance over the South China sea? Or will China constraint its attack within its and Taiwanese territorial waters and air? Beyond war strategies, China trade with the West will be under embargo, but that may be more painful for us than them since most everything is made in China. The Chinese can endure longer economic pains than western populations can. But the longer the conflict goes on the more likely western nations will develop new supplier networks outside China. This will benefit countries that historically compete with China for parts used in manufacturing value added products that are still made in the west. We may even see some manufacturing come back to the west. I am sure China's administration is sifting through those thousands of expected and unintended consequences on the short, mid and long term before Xi is given the green light or not to invade Taiwan.
Well, you're no dummy, but the fact remains, blockades can be instituted in a blink. Especially in this case. So whatever Maxinger said, regarding the difficulty in shipping this stuff out and how hard it would be,,, I tend to agree. i was actually impressed by what he said No idea what a "stepper" is..... but in the context of his post... he obviously does. No one writes stuff like that not knowing wtf they are talking about. And a "stepper" must be a big deal.
Yeah I don't know what a stepper is either. I just suspect it can be dismantled in small enough components to fit in military cargo planes.
I am located in Taiwan and trade options both in Taiwan and the US. quite interested in what you guys in the US think the possibility that China would invade Taiwan in the near future. I personally think the chance is kind of very low. Both sides on Taiwan strait is very good at calculating the profit and loss when the war occurs.
I'm surprised by how nonchalant and pragmatic people in Taiwan are. I recently had lunch with cousins of my wife who still live in Taiwan and they reacted the same way you do. They've pretty much internalized that if China wants to take Taiwan it will just happen. Taiwan defense forces will be quickly overwhelmed, those people who want to, and can, will leave while everyone else will just go about their lives. The sense was that no one wants to die for this.
Samsung should have the same process capability as TSMC. Samsung can get the same EUV machine from ASML as TSM does. So as, INTC. Yet, AAPL and NVDA pull their processors from Samsung to TSMC's 5nm node process. AAPL will move to TSMC's 3nm node process soon. Say what it may, TSMC has something that its competitors do not.
Samsung is not even close. TSMC 5nm yield is 85% while Samsung 5nm yield is 35%, one and only very profitable chip foundry. Forget about Intel, it’s latest i9 is still on 10nm.
ASML Netherlands makes lithography machines. Stepper is a huge machine. My estimate : - one machine costs $100m - you need 10 huge containers to ship it It has many cutting-edge technologies. Without it, you can't make high-end semiconductor chips. I don't think they can ship any to China.