What's crazy is that the capital raise closed at $243 less than two weeks ago, and the price is down close to 20% since then. And $243 wasn't the last trade price for a 100-share lot, it was the price for >$2 billion in cold hard cash from long-term, big-money investors, assessed as reasonable by due-diligence teams of analysts and underwriters. It really should have marked the bottom for at least a few months.
Excellent explanation of the Tesla bonds: https://wolfstreet.com/2019/05/20/carmageddon-sinks-teslas-bonds/ Best part: But Tesla is a large, global, complex manufacturing, distribution, and retail operation, and you, Dear Elon, will have no idea what most of these expense items are and what they’re for unless you ask the responsible manager. This, Dear Elon, takes a HUGE amount of time. Trying to do this for a company the size of Tesla shows that you are: Either clueless about running a complex manufacturing, distribution, and retail operation, Or so desperate that you can’t think straight any longer, Or willing to say anything no matter how silly just to boost the shares, Or all of the above.
Notice the last two days Tesla closed above $205.---$205.36 and $205.08 Just wondering if $205. might be the magic Musk margin call number??
Closing in on the $180 mark in pre-market. YES!!! The terminal descent stage seems to have finally started. I'm no chartist but the $180 level is supposed to be a strong support? Anyone looking to game the 6 month Puts with sub $10 strikes? One concrete sign of financial distress, and TSLA will be in the single digits overnight.
What I find amazing, is that the bear case on this stock has been well articulated for the last 2 years at least. Along the way, many of the things bears predicted have come true (e.g., Elon not meeting production promises, capital burn rate out of control, demand issues, competition, autopilot not being nearly as good as promised, etc). Yet the stock would never meaningfully move downward. During this time however, Wall Street analysts (aka smart money) have been consistently bullish, and said that every Elon fart smelled like roses. Price barely reacted to news items that were clearly bearish for the Tesla business. Yet suddenly, almost all at once, all of these same bullish analysts are waking up and the stock has no floor beneath it. Kinda remarkable if you ask me.
That's pretty typical. Stay around long enough and you'll run into a case like Amazon where, in the 2000 time frame exactly the same story was playing out. Only in their case Bezos managed to pull it off, and if you try to relate what it was like to contemporaneously live through that to someone here on ET who's only been around for a couple years they literally scoff at you and say "But Amazon is a great, well run company, it's nothing like Tesla", which of course it is....now. Google went through a similar phase after their IPO. Just saying, if you stick around long enough you'll find more than one of the "obviously gonna fail" companies ends up turning into one of the largest cap companies in the market, so while it's all easy in hindsite if you're honest with yourself (or better yet keep a journal of your predictions) you'll find that the obvious isn't quite as obvious as you thought, at least not reliably so. Of course this could just be the case for me, but it was a great teacher in humility for me. This is especially the case with game changing companies, almost all of which seemed obviously destined to fail at some point in their life.
Well, most stocks don't get pumped up beyond all reasons for years. If you manipulate stocks with a clear pattern, the manipulation will quickly fail. Stock operators / big players didn't get to where they are now by being easily decoded. That's why trading stocks is so hard.
Now green in premarket.....wouldn't be shocked to see a big rally today. Markets turning the screws on everybody, like they always have.