The 920 MM debt is a no biggie. They said earlier they would pay it in 50-50% cash and stock. But there is still an opinion of paying it 100% stock even if the price is way below $360. I think they will choose that option and dilute the stock 1% or so. That news probably will take the stock down a bit (not the dilution but the inability to pay cash) but nothing serious. Here is my take on Tesla's near future, and mind you I have been right about its range in the last 12+ months. "A few posts ago I said between 280-350. I am not sure about if it is really going to reach the upper end of that range, but the cult is still strong and it will take a while when the market realizes that there is not enough buying power from the public to spend it on such expensive cars. Then Elon will throw in a couple of tweets and news and the stock will recover. My take is that after surviving last year, they should be OK for the next 12-18 months. They are making profits on the cars and as long as they don't spend on new cars, they can chug along. For the model Y they need a new loan, but Larry can provide it or other Silicon Valley mogul. So no big news to take it down, no big achievement to push it up for long equals price range. The range just going to be a bit lower than the previous one. Now if it comes out that they were fudging the numbers last year, that could cause a 50 bucks hit...SeekingAlpha is too bearish, Electrec is too bullish, the truth is between those two. Tesla stopped being a growth company, but they can still be a niche car maker."
So Elon needs the stock at about $360 to trigger the convertible price to service this obligation with stock instead of (desperately needed) cash. Earnings tonight. I wonder what kind of Elon-magic he'll pull tonight on the CC or what kind of smoke and mirrors will be in the 8K. Stock is at $300 pre-market here. Seems like it should run today, Then again, it may sell off until the report hits. Options (straddle) are pricing about a 10% move. If it were to drop to $270, that would put Elon in a real pickle. hmmm. Opinions? Edit: We were posting at the same time Pek. Interesting points you make.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/30/musk-says-tesla-cfo-deepak-ahuja-is-leaving-the-company.html Tesla shares drop sharply after Musk announces CFO Deepak Ahuja is leaving the company — for the second time Tesla CFO Deepak Ahuja plans to retire from Tesla sometime in 2019. He will be replaced by Zach Kirkhorn, who is currently Tesla’s vice president of finance. Ahuja first joined Tesla in 2008, then left in 2015. He returned in 2017 to replace then-CFO Jason Wheeler, who abruptly resigned.
The new CFO is 31 years old. Andrew Fastow became CFO of Enron in 1998, when he was 37. It's generally accepted that, aside from being a crook, he was grossly inexperienced and under-qualified to oversee the finances of a multi-billion-dollar corporation. But maybe this Zach Kirkhorn, groomed at Tesla for his whole career (such as it is), will be just the guy to make tough decisions and stand up to Elon.
Yep - personally I've been pretty dismissive of the theories that TSLA is engaging in actual accounting fraud, but going forward it's a genuine possibility.
Today is the last day when they could opt to lower the price of the bond exchange for stocks from $360. (20 trading days before March 1st) But there was a requirement to mail this version to the bondholders 2 weeks earlier and we haven't heard they did that, so we have to assume the lowered (thus more diluted) stocks for bonds won't happen. Unless they suddenly announce it today....
A Tesla S can go from 0-60 mph in less then 3 seconds. That's fast. A Tesla S can be hacked in 1.6 seconds.That's even faster.