One day they reached 500 cars and that was extrapolated. On an extended time frame they can't keep that up. And that includes working over the weekend. Eventually they could keep it up but they simply just can't sell 3K cars per week. Not until they drop the price to 35K. (not going to happen) Have you heard of the 75K M3? It is coming!!
It is called the auto industry. They can predict fairly well how many luxury cars can be sold. I forgot the exact math, so for every X K price increase demand drops Y%. Elon knows damn well the true demand for the M3 at each price level. I would say half of the people signed up for it thought they can buy it for 35K or even with the tax credit. The tax credit will be minimal by the end of this year, and there is no basic M3 for 35K. Thus the claimed demand can be easily cut in half. Anyhow there are other data available if you read SA... https://seekingalpha.com/article/4176298-tesla-finally-sees-good-news-things "Elon also confirmed that a great majority of deposit holders are waiting for the bare-bones $35k version rather than buying the loaded version like bulls claimed they would."
I don't see where Elon confirmed folks are waiting for bare bones. I don't accept seeking alpha as having any special insight or data. I don't accept your production figuring or more specifically your lack of figuring. If you are correct, especially given what seems to be an overwhelming amount of evidence you possess or believe, than I hope you are short the stock or own long expiry puts.
“It’s sort of a funny question. Would I trade 96% of the market for 4% of the market? I want to have products that appeal to everybody. Now we’ll get a chance to go through this again in phones and music players. There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.” —Then-Microsoft CEO Steve Balmer, April 29, 2007
http://fortune.com/2017/06/29/iphone-10th-anniversary-quotes/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2017/01/09/world-reacted-first-iphone-10-years-ago/ https://www.wired.com/2017/01/apple-iphone-10th-anniversary/ https://www.technologizer.com/2009/12/28/iphone-rumors/
what Balmer said is different than these guys here. he said Iphone would not make it and he was very wrong. my dad said the Beatles were going to be a one hit wonder also. these posters are making up things , and presenting them as facts. quite honestly; i've been here since 2003 and rarely have seen so many gross made up statements.
I have been correct on Tesla's price range for the last 11 months. See Iron Condor on Tesla in the Option section. It is not a full blown short yet due to people like you. (and institutions not selling yet)