Morningstar FV at $349~, " After rolling our Tesla model forward a year for the 10-K filing, we increase our fair value estimate to $349 from $306. The change is primarily from increasing our midcycle operating margin by 100 basis points to 13% and increasing our total vehicles delivered over our 10-year forecast period by about 25% to 28.4 million. The midcycle margin move is to give Tesla more benefit of the doubt that the investments laid out at its September 2020 Battery Day event will yield meaningful cost reductions over time and enable more economies of scale. The vehicles sold increase is a function of rolling the model, which removes a low roughly 500,000 2020 delivery figure from the forecast and replaces it with a 4.3 million unit figure in 2030. We’ve also kept delivery growth rates elevated off of a higher starting point in our forecast, which means 2024 deliveries are now at about 2.7 million versus about 2.1 million previously. We are taking our 2021 deliveries forecast down to 800,000 from 950,000 as we expect the semiconductor shortage impacting the auto industry to slow Tesla’s production. That is still about 60% growth from 2020 which is in line with guidance of growth this year above the firm’s planned annual growth rate of 50%. We model growth rates of at least 50% through 2023 but decline this rate to the mid-single digits by 2030. "
tsla hit my 550 downside target yesterday, wish i'd shorted it, oh well at least i nailed my call : p
It was a great call on your part. Its funny, you yourself even said you were afraid to short it. And that's exactly why it dropped Ken; everyone was afraid to short it. When that happens, down they go. They never drop until the lion's share of shorts are gone. Now comes the big reset. The game starts anew. Despite what I wrote above, $600 could easily prove to be a near term top. The march to $1000 won't start until enough shorts get on board. That'll be tricky this time. I'd expect some bad news and lots of negative press, while the stock establishes a range for a bit. $600 might be the top of the range, we'll see. It's yet to be determined. They may walk it up on low volume days when it doesn't take a lot of shares to move it, but it'll come right back down. Whatever the top and bottom of the range proves to be, there'll be nice daily spikes within the range to trade. At some point it'll break through the top convincingly and that's when all the gloomy news will be released. The shorts will see a "sure thing" and pile on. And that, is when it'll start its climb to $1000. It'll take a bit for the reset though. $600 could easily be the bottom/top/or middle of the range. We'll just have to see. I believe in the stock long term, but I also know it needs shorts to play its game and get back to its lofty valuations.
When are you and steve nison going to collab again like the good old days? glad your doing well my old friend.
So...you predicted the fall but you didn't short. Did you buy low and are getting ready to sell high?
Lots of people predict things hoping to get it right once and then write a book about how they predicted X. Unless they have the conviction to put the chips on the table and take a stand, all these predictions are no different than having apes throw darts on a dartboard and anyone can do it. Now if you make a prediction and actually trade it then that is a whole different story.
I personally don't buy the autonomous taxi pitch, at least for another 10-15 years. But, unlike her, I do believe in the energy business even though profitability is impacted by battery production constraints. Tsla at $2000 in 2024 is a strong possibility (market share to market size). It's better than anything else I see out there and the reason I've loaded up again in the last month.
The autonomous taxi thing, of course it won't be everywhere. As things stand now, it'll come one city at a time. Which city(?) I have no idea. All the players talk about the 5G buildout. With regards to fully autonomous vehicles, lol, well yeah, thats a friggin given. You're gonna need 5G. 5G on steroids really. Tech has a way of moving on however. 5g as we know it.... (actually... 'as we foresee it' lol... because we're stupid as a whole).... I have a feeling that's synonymous to vacuum tubes in the minds of Elon's circle. Ken Calhoun may have called a near term top on TSLA.... but make no mistake.... VZ has called the generational bottom. Right here babe: