I am short TSLA, 240 calls and 265 calls. TSLA makes great cars but they have negative profit margins and an absolutely absurd, dotcom-bubble-era valuation.
The gambling analogy for options has no place in the Options forum on ET. US equity options are the most common type of equity derivative, they are sold and bought year round - including during earnings. Be aware of the risk - below is a common disclaimer you might read on your brokers website. "Options involve risks and are not suitable for everyone. Option trading can be speculative in nature and carry substantial risk of loss. Only invest with risk capital."
The argument over investing vs gambling is a perennial one which eventually occurs, in one form or another, on all threads given enough time. In the hope of quenching a pointless discussion I offer this well thought out essay: http://www.investorguide.com/article/12525/what-is-the-difference-between-gambling-and-investing/ I suggest you read it carefully, digest it and then shut up about it.
TSLA at $234.11 I bought the 267.50 call instead at $1.00. Email confirmation: 2016-05-03 11:56:36 ET BOUGHT 1 CALL TSLA 2016MAY06 267.50:US at $1.00 USD
UBS says TSLA will disappoint: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/te...-a-big-miss-ubs-says-2016-05-03?siteid=yhoof2 What is the market expecting: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wh...ings-2016-05-02?siteid=yhoof2#:Fom4Oa5eFkFuUA http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TSLA Other issues: http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...ll-needs-more-cash/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo http://blog.estimize.com/post/143807267645/can-tesla-continue-to-lose-more-money http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-values-tesla-motors-181441903.html A good summary article: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/03/tesl...adline|headline|story&par=yahoo&doc=103602064
I have explained the Probability calculation so many times I simply cannot do it again. (BTW: it is not "probability of success") Read some books.
Here's a real short term earnings trade that's in sync with valuations and market expectations: with TSLA at 232.32 Buy 1 TSLA MayWk1 235 Put Sell -1 TSLA MayWk1 225 Put Net debit = $485 Price..... Profit / Loss..... ROI % 168.75........ 515.00......... 106.19% 192.74........ 515.00......... 106.19% 217.99........ 515.00......... 106.19% 225.00........ 515.00......... 106.19% 230.15............ 0.00............ 0.00% 235.00....... (485.00)...... -100.00% 243.24....... (485.00)...... -100.00% 268.50....... (485.00)...... -100.00% 293.75....... (485.00)...... -100.00% Note: I am NOT making this trade. I simply don't do these kinds of trades...but it will be interesting to see what will unfold this week.